Whale Buying vs. Rising Short Sentiment: Solana at a Crossroads Amid Mixed Signals

▲ Solana (SOL) ©

Solana (SOL) is holding around the $79 level, but mixed signals from spot ETF inflows and bearish indicators in the derivatives market are limiting its rebound momentum.

According to investment-focused outlet FXStreet on February 13 (local time), SOL has corrected more than 9% this week and was trading near $79 as of Friday. Data from SoSoValue showed that U.S.-listed spot Solana ETFs recorded $11.6 million in net inflows through Thursday, snapping a two-week streak of outflows. Analysts say that if institutional demand continues to recover, a short-term price rebound remains possible.

On-chain data and spot and futures market indicators are also showing some positive signs. A summary from CryptoQuant reported the emergence of large whale orders and a buying-dominant flow. Despite price weakness, buying pressure has been detected, suggesting the potential for a technical rebound.

However, the derivatives market remains cautious. According to CoinGlass, SOL’s funding rate turned negative to -0.0014% on Friday, shifting to a structure where short positions pay long positions. This signals prevailing short-term bearish sentiment. At the same time, open interest declined to $4.96 billion, continuing a steady drop since mid-January and falling to its lowest level since mid-April 2025. This indicates that both market participation and leverage are decreasing simultaneously.

Technical factors also add pressure. SOL fell 8.62% last week and has dropped about 9% more this week. If the downtrend continues, the price could retest the February 6 low of $67.50, and a break below that level could open the way to the next psychological support at $60. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 26, entering deeply oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator maintains a bearish crossover formed on January 19, with expanding red histogram bars in negative territory.

Conversely, if a short-term rebound materializes, $80 is expected to act as the first psychological resistance level. SOL’s next direction will likely depend on whether spot ETF inflows and whale buying persist, or whether weakness in the derivatives market adds further downward pressure.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any losses resulting from investment decisions based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*