Bitcoin at $60,000—Start of a Bear Market or Has It Found a Bottom?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

As Bitcoin (BTC) plunged by half from $126,000 to $60,000, debate has reignited over whether this marks the beginning of a bear market or the passage of a market bottom.

According to cryptocurrency outlet Bitcoinist on February 27 (local time), crypto analyst BarneyXBT presented three arguments suggesting the current phase could still be a bear market, as well as three reasons supporting the view that the bull market remains intact. With market sentiment still lingering in negative territory, determining whether a bottom has been reached is emerging as the key variable.

As factors indicating a prolonged bear market, large investor sell-offs were highlighted first. So-called “Satoshi-era” whales have recently been seen liquidating holdings, and Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin was also reported to have sold ETH. This comes amid a turbulent macroeconomic backdrop—including prolonged tariff conflicts, interest rate freezes, and declining consumer confidence—adding pressure across the broader market. The near disappearance of retail investor liquidity and the absence of a new narrative such as the artificial intelligence (AI) theme that drove markets in 2024 were also cited as bearish arguments.

On the other hand, there is a strong case that the bull market has not yet ended. Market sentiment has fallen to extreme lows similar to those seen during the collapse of the FTX exchange. At that time, markets rebounded after fear peaked, raising the possibility that excessive pessimism could once again signal a reversal.

Institutional capital is another key variable. Firms such as BlackRock and Fidelity have poured billions of dollars into spot Bitcoin ETFs. BarneyXBT noted that it is unlikely these institutions would abandon large-scale infrastructure investments in the short term. The four-year Bitcoin halving cycle was also mentioned. Historically, bull markets have unfolded around halving events, and with the next halving scheduled for 2028, a recovery trend cannot be ruled out.

Ultimately, the market faces competing forces: downward pressure from whale sell-offs, macroeconomic uncertainty, and retail capital outflows versus upward drivers including extreme fear, continued institutional investment, and the halving cycle. Whether Bitcoin can maintain support at $60,000 and how quickly sentiment recovers are expected to serve as key inflection points for the next trend.

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