Bitcoin Fails to Break $150,000 Despite ETF Inflows, ‘External Selling’ to Blame

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ETF

A senior Bloomberg analyst is drawing investor attention by raising new questions about hidden selling pressure and structural limitations in the market, as Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to reach the $150,000 milestone despite record-breaking inflows into spot ETFs.

According to cryptocurrency outlet U.Today on February 26 (local time), Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas analyzed why Bitcoin’s price has not surged as expected even though spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded the most successful launch in history, pointing to market imbalances. Balchunas noted in particular that despite BlackRock’s IBIT holding 3.8% of the total Bitcoin supply and surpassing $57 billion in cumulative inflows, Bitcoin remains around $67,000—roughly half of its all-time high of $126,198 recorded last October.

“ETF investors have largely held onto their positions even during record downturns, showing strong support, but the issue lies with selling pressure outside the ETFs,” Balchunas explained, raising questions about unseen sellers in the market. He identified continuous selling from miners and profit-taking by long-term holders as key reasons why massive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are not fully translating into price gains. According to his analysis, the amount of Bitcoin being sold by existing holders is exceeding the pace of institutional inflows, effectively offsetting upward price pressure.

A structural “rotation effect” in the market has also been cited as a cause of price stagnation. Many investors are selling their previously held spot Bitcoin and converting those holdings into ETFs, resulting in a lower-than-expected net inflow effect within the broader market. Balchunas compared this to the concept of a “Bull Market Subsidy” in equities, warning that without corresponding price appreciation, the apparent success of ETFs could create the illusion of strength while masking internal selling pressure.

Balchunas further assessed that weakened retail investor sentiment and macroeconomic uncertainty are hindering Bitcoin’s path toward the $150,000 target. With negative market sentiment nearing 85% and entering an extreme fear phase, he noted that institutional inflows through ETFs alone may be insufficient to trigger strong buying momentum from retail investors. This suggests that beyond capital inflows, the Bitcoin market faces the dual challenge of restoring broad public confidence and generating sustained price momentum.

The digital asset market is currently navigating a complex phase marked by institutional accumulation alongside the exit of existing holders. For Bitcoin to begin a genuine rally, not only must ETF flows stabilize, but selling pressure from miners and long-term holders must subside, and retail investor sentiment must recover. Experts are monitoring liquidity trends and the defense of key support levels through the second half of 2026 as they assess the ongoing process of Bitcoin’s valuation reassessment.

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