Will XRP Truly Surge in March, or Face Yet Another Disappointment?

▲ XRP (XRP) / ChatGPT-generated image ©

XRP (XRP, Ripple) stands at a turning point ahead of March, where strong expectations of a rebound and extreme skepticism are colliding, with market attention focused on whether it can break through key resistance levels.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet Watcher.Guru on February 26 (local time), XRP is currently trading around $1.47, marking a gain of about 7% over the past week. This outpaces Bitcoin’s performance over the same period. The Altcoin Season Index has surged 32.14% over the past seven days, signaling a shift of capital from Bitcoin to altcoins, and raising the possibility of a short-term rally for XRP.

AI-based forecasts remain mixed. According to Finbold’s AI prediction tool, DeepSeek expects XRP to fall to $1.42, while ChatGPT projects $1.52 and Grok forecasts $1.56. The average of the three models stands at $1.50 as of March 1, 2026, implying a 2.09% upside from the current price. From an AI perspective, there is room for limited gains, but an explosive rally appears unlikely.

Some analysts, however, present a completely different scenario. CryptoBull, cited by NS3.AI, predicts that XRP could rise to $4 on March 2 and climb further to $9 by March 11. He bases this outlook on a chart structure similar to that of 2017. However, opinions remain divided, given that XRP is already down about 60% from its July 2025 high. In addition, Standard Chartered’s recent downgrade of its XRP price forecast has tempered bullish sentiment.

Technically, XRP has reached a critical juncture. The token is holding above the 7-day simple moving average of $1.44 and the exponential moving average of $1.46, while the MACD histogram has turned positive. The Relative Strength Index stands at 42, indicating it is not in overbought territory. However, analysts widely agree that for a stronger bullish scenario to unfold, XRP must decisively break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.58. Conversely, a drop below $1.47 could trigger renewed selling pressure.

Market uncertainty also persists. There are warnings that if the $1.41 support level collapses, XRP could fall to the $0.60 range. With March price forecasts ranging dramatically from $1.42 to as high as $9, analysts conclude that XRP’s direction ultimately depends on whether it first breaks above the $1.58 resistance or fails to defend key support levels.

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