Solana Rebound a Retail Shakeout? Upward Momentum Stalls Ahead of Sell Wall

▲ Solana (SOL)

Solana (SOL) has demonstrated a record-breaking price rebound. However, with a sharp decline in buying strength from long-term holders—the backbone of the network—it faces the risk of further sharp declines if it fails to break through a massive sell wall.

According to cryptocurrency-focused media outlet BeInCrypto on February 26 (local time), Solana has staged a steep recovery from its recent lows, but it appears insufficient to fully restore market confidence. Typically, strong buying pressure accompanies price rebounds, yet in this case, long-term holders—considered the network’s core supporters—are instead stepping back, creating an unusual scenario. This weakening investor sentiment supports the view that the current rebound may struggle to evolve into a sustained recovery.

Analysis of data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode shows that accumulation by long-term investors holding Solana for more than 155 days has plunged 62.5% from its mid-February peak. The significant loss of conviction among long-term holders during a period of price stabilization and rebound is interpreted as a negative market signal. The supply share held by mid-term investors—those holding assets between one and three months—also declined from 19.52% to 14.08% within a month, indicating accelerating market exits.

From a technical perspective, the biggest obstacle facing Solana lies in a massive sell wall of over 22.16 million SOL formed between $82.81 and $83.79. Many investors previously accumulated positions in this range, and when prices approach their breakeven levels, selling pressure tends to surge as they seek to avoid losses. With buying momentum from long-term holders significantly weakened, there is insufficient demand to absorb the large supply, causing Solana’s upward momentum to stall near the $82.91 resistance level.

On the chart, a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern remains valid, with a final downside target pointing to the $68.71 area. For Solana to enter a full-fledged recovery phase, it must first decisively break above and hold the $82.91 resistance level, followed by moves past $86.82 and $91.33 to confirm the end of the downtrend. Despite the rebound, the weakening buying strength of core investors suggests that latent risks persist in the market.

Solana is currently facing strong resistance, and if it falls back below $80.89, there is a high likelihood it will retest its downside target. BeInCrypto noted, “The weakening buying momentum among long-term holders raises questions about whether the current rebound is a sustainable recovery.” Investors should closely monitor changes in long-term holder supply dynamics along with technical resistance breakouts and focus on prudent risk management.

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