Clarity Act’s Odds of Passage This Year Plunge to 42%, Will It Meet the March 1 Deal Deadline?

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The likelihood of the so-called “CLARITY Act,” a comprehensive U.S. virtual asset regulatory bill, being enacted within the year has fallen to the low 40% range in prediction markets, amplifying market pessimism amid unresolved tensions between the crypto industry and the traditional banking sector.

According to cryptocurrency outlet Bitcoinist on February 25 (local time), data from prediction platform Polymarket shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year has dropped sharply to 42%. This reflects deep market skepticism that ongoing negotiations between the digital asset industry and banks will fail to produce a breakthrough in time.

Despite months of high-level talks under White House mediation, the two sides have failed to reach a final agreement after three key meetings. While Patrick Witt, the White House digital asset adviser, maintained an optimistic stance, saying “significant progress has been made and the March 1 deadline can be met,” market reaction has remained lukewarm. Strong opposition from the banking sector has effectively removed one of the crypto industry’s primary goals—allowing interest payments on idle stablecoin balances—from the negotiating table. Discussions have instead narrowed to permitting rewards linked to specific user activities rather than simple account balances.

Separately from the political tug-of-war, experts predict that if enacted, the bill could bring about more profound structural changes to the Bitcoin (BTC) derivatives market than investors currently anticipate. Market analyst MartyParty stated that clarifying jurisdiction through the legislation would solidify the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) authority over digital assets, accelerating the growth of compliant exchanges within the United States.

This regulatory clarity is expected to drive substantial inflows of institutional capital previously restricted from securities investments and enhance consumer protection and funding rate transparency by legalizing perpetual futures products in the U.S. It may also reduce implied volatility premiums in the options market, facilitating institutional hedging strategies. At the same time, leverage caps under stricter CFTC regulations are projected to significantly curb the extreme speculative trading by retail investors that is currently prevalent on offshore exchanges.

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