Bitcoin Rebounds After Trump’s Speech... U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Emerge as Key Variable

▲ Iran, Bitcoin (BTC) / ChatGPT-generated image ©

Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, bitcoin (BTC), the market leader, is attempting a cautious rebound. However, geopolitical tensions and technical indicators pointing to downside pressure continue to fuel concerns over a potential breakdown below $60,000.

According to investment media outlet FXStreet on February 25 (local time), bitcoin slightly recovered above $65,000 during Wednesday’s European trading session, once again testing the lower boundary of the previously broken $66,000 range resistance. U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded inflows of $257 million on Tuesday, the largest since February 6, signaling a revival in institutional demand. Santiment data showed that retail investors’ bullish expectations (FOMO) surged to a four-week high following President Trump’s speech. However, analysts warned that excessive crowd euphoria could instead hinder the rebound.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are casting a dark cloud over the market. Ahead of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran scheduled for Thursday, tensions escalated as the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon preemptively evacuated staff. This has heightened risk-off sentiment among investors, raising concerns that capital could flow out of risk assets and into safe havens such as gold (XAU). According to K33 Research, derivatives traders are also adopting an extremely defensive stance. The 30-day average funding rate has plunged to 0.78%, its lowest level since September 2024, while open interest remains around 270,000 contracts, reflecting strong bearish sentiment and a marked reluctance to use leverage.

Technical analysis likewise points to a challenging road ahead. On the four-hour chart, bitcoin remains firmly capped below the 50-period and 100-period exponential moving averages (EMAs), facing solid resistance. The relative strength index (RSI) continues to hover below 50, indicating that bearish pressure has not yet subsided. If bitcoin fails to break through the first resistance at $66,500 and the key barrier at $68,500, dominant projections suggest it could slide past the psychological support at $63,000 toward $60,000, and in the worst-case scenario, drop further to the technical downside target of $58,822.

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