Polymarket Sees 75% Probability of Bitcoin Falling Further Below $55,000

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), bear market/AI-generated image

As Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $65,000, bets on further declines have surged on the prediction market Polymarket.

According to Cointelegraph on the 23rd (local time), the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $55,000 on Polymarket has soared to 72%. Trading volume for this bet has reached approximately $1.2 million, with the chances of falling below $50,000 and $45,000 estimated at 61% and 47%, respectively, indicating a predominance of bearish sentiment in the market.

Bitcoin’s market capitalization has declined to around $1.31 trillion, pushing it down to 15th place among global assets. This places it below the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO). Since the start of the year, Bitcoin’s market cap has shrunk by about $440 billion from its peak, representing roughly a quarter of its total value. The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization has also fallen by approximately $760 billion (24.5%), reflecting a broader downturn.

Market analysts and major financial institutions are also warning of further downside risks. Standard Chartered projected that Bitcoin could correct to $50,000 before resuming its path toward $100,000. On-chain data analytics platform CryptoQuant identified $55,000 as the “ultimate market bottom,” noting that the current Tether (USDT) liquidity stress index is at levels similar to those seen during the 2022 market bottom.

Meanwhile, some observers are focusing on Bitcoin’s long-term value. Certain analysts continue to describe Bitcoin as an undervalued asset, and a Coinbase survey found that about 70% of institutional investors view Bitcoin as undervalued even within the $85,000 to $95,000 price range. The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing extreme volatility, caught between short-term liquidity contraction and long-term valuation assessments.

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