Ripple to Unlock Another 1 Billion Tokens? XRP Enters Battle to Defend $1.43 Support Level

▲ Ripple (XRP)

Ripple is set to release 1 billion XRP tokens into the market through its customary escrow unlock on March 1, about a week from now. However, contrary to concerns over a massive token dump, the actual net increase in circulating supply is expected to be limited, suggesting that the long-term impact on price will likely be minimal.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet Finbold on February 21 (local time), Ripple is preparing for its regular monthly escrow unlock that has been ongoing since 2017. In February, 1 billion XRP worth approximately $1.63 billion at the time was released, but about 700 million tokens were re-locked into escrow within days, leaving only around 300 million XRP as net new supply in the market. As a result, approximately 33.895 billion XRP remained in escrow after the February unlock.

A similar pattern is expected to repeat in March. Technically, 1 billion XRP will be unlocked, but most of it is likely to be re-escrowed, reducing the total escrow balance to about 33.595 billion XRP. This structure reflects Ripple’s original goal of enhancing transparency and preventing sudden supply shocks. Typically, Ripple retains only 20% to 30% of the unlocked tokens for operational funding purposes, placing the remainder back into escrow.

Historically, these unlock events have been widely anticipated by the market, and due to the relatively small net increase in supply, their long-term impact on price declines has been extremely limited. Short-term volatility may arise from speculative activity or movements by large investors, but sustained price trends tend to be more influenced by broader macroeconomic catalysts. Moreover, ongoing transaction fee burns, whale accumulation, and growing institutional interest through investment products such as spot XRP ETFs serve as strong buffers against potential selling pressure.

Currently, XRP is trading near $1.43, moving in line with the broader cryptocurrency market, which has been under pressure in recent weeks. Technical indicators continue to signal downward pressure, with the 50-day simple moving average at $1.79 and the 200-day simple moving average at $2.31, both significantly above the current price, suggesting weakening short-term momentum and a broader bearish trend. In particular, the substantial gap from the 200-day average reflects a prolonged downward trend beyond a simple correction.

Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 41.42, remaining neutral but below the 50 baseline, indicating subdued buying pressure. Although the asset has not yet entered oversold territory and sellers still maintain control of the market, there remains ample room for a short-term rebound should momentum shift positively.

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