Fidelity Says Bitcoin in Correction Within Historical Norms, Cites Decisive Evidence of Bottoming Out

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) / ChatGPT-generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to nearly half of its all-time high recorded last year, experiencing a severe downturn, but global asset manager Fidelity has identified positive signals amid the current price decline. The firm assessed that this correction remains within the historical range of past bear markets and that Bitcoin’s fundamental strength as a long-term store of value is in fact strengthening.

According to reports from U.Today and NewsBTC, Giselle Lai, a digital assets strategist at Fidelity Investments, stated in a recent report, “While the current price correction in Bitcoin may appear harsh in absolute terms, it remains within the range of historical drawdowns observed in previous Bitcoin bear markets.” Bitcoin reached a peak of $126,000 in October 2025 and has since declined by approximately 50%.

The strongest “signal of hope” highlighted by Fidelity is the 200-week moving average. Historically, Bitcoin has consistently rebounded from this level, using it as support when forming market bottoms during major cycles. This indicator is currently positioned around $58,000, and Fidelity expects this range to serve as a strong psychological and technical floor for the market.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric is also showing notable changes. The report notes that as prices recently fell below the average purchase price of $82,000 for spot Bitcoin ETF investors, significant realized losses occurred. However, this is interpreted as a healthy process of flushing out overheated leverage in the market. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, analyzed that “While 2026 may be an off-year for Bitcoin, support in the $65,000 to $75,000 range remains solid.”

Fidelity also pointed to Bitcoin’s long-term declining volatility as meaningful. Compared with traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, Bitcoin’s volatility has been structurally decreasing, suggesting that it is evolving beyond a purely speculative asset into a trusted reserve asset within institutional finance. In particular, institutional demand remains robust, with corporations and even nations holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, accounting for nearly 5% of total supply.

Ultimately, Fidelity’s analysis emphasizes that the current painful downturn does not signal the end of Bitcoin but rather serves as a necessary consolidation phase for the next upward cycle. Despite short-term market uncertainty, technical indicators and on-chain data point to Bitcoin approaching a historic bottom range.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and the publisher is not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.