Will XRP Fall Below $1 Amid Triple Headwinds of War, Interest Rates, and ETF Concerns?

▲ Donald Trump and XRP, ChatGPT-generated image ©

XRP (XRP, Ripple) is threatening the $1.4 level as hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, spot ETF outflows, and rising U.S.–Iran war risks converge.

According to investment media outlet FXEmpire on Feb. 19 (local time), XRP fell toward the $1.4 range as selling pressure intensified following heightened geopolitical tensions and the release of hawkish FOMC minutes. With many Federal Reserve officials indicating that the federal funds rate (FFR) is approaching a neutral level, expectations for an early rate cut weakened, weighing on overall cryptocurrency demand.

Although U.S. headline inflation for January slowed from 2.7% to 2.4% and core inflation eased from 2.6% to 2.5%, the probability of a June rate cut fell from 63.4% to 62.1%, according to CME FedWatch. XRP dropped from $1.4452 to an intraday low of $1.4111 immediately after the minutes were released. Reports that U.S.–Iran tensions could escalate into military conflict further boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The sharp decline in Bitcoin (BTC) from $48,240 to $17,689 during the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022 is also being revisited.

Spot ETF fund flows are adding to the pressure. On Feb. 17, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $104.9 million, bringing cumulative net outflows since the start of the year to $2.39 billion. As Bitcoin has fallen 23.82% year-to-date, the U.S. spot XRP ETF also posted net outflows of $2.21 million on Feb. 18. This marked the fifth outflow since the listing of the Canary XRP ETF on Nov. 14, 2025.

In the short term, bearish momentum remains intact. XRP has declined 13.8% in February and is trading below both its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.6996 and its 200-day EMA at $2.1228. Key support levels are identified at $1.1227 and $1.0, while resistance levels stand at $1.5, $2.0, $2.5, and $3.0. Analysts warn that a break below $1.0 could accelerate the short-term downtrend.

However, medium-term rebound expectations remain. Anticipation surrounding the U.S. Senate’s crypto market structure bill, the potential passage of the Clarity Act, expanding XRP utility, and solid demand following the launch of the XRP spot ETF support projections of $2.5 within 4–8 weeks and $3.0 within 8–12 weeks. Longer term, if XRP surpasses its all-time high of $3.66, some forecasts suggest a move toward $5 within 6–12 months. Nonetheless, variables such as a full-scale U.S.–Iran conflict, delayed rate cuts, and prolonged ETF net outflows could undermine this optimistic scenario.

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