Bitcoin Hits $125,000 Then Plunges—Is a Long Winter Coming Until 2027?

▲ Bitcoin bear market (downtrend) ©

After reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $125,000 on October 12 last year, Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a steep decline, and on-chain analysis suggests it has entered not a simple correction but a long-term restructuring phase that could last at least a year. As market sentiment has rapidly shifted from optimism to defensiveness, key indicators warn that this downturn is unlikely to end anytime soon.

According to crypto outlet Bitcoinist on February 18 (local time), prominent crypto analyst Axel Adler stated, citing the on-chain metric Entity-Adjusted Liveliness, that the Bitcoin market is transitioning from the end of a distribution phase to a prolonged accumulation period. This indicator, which measures the activity of long-term holders, peaked at 0.02676 in December 2025—about two months after Bitcoin hit its price high—and has since declined to 0.02669, forming a clear downward trend.

Looking at past cycles, such downward reversals in the liveliness metric typically signaled extended accumulation periods lasting between 1.1 and 2.5 years. The accumulation phase that began in 2020 lasted about 1.1 years, while the period from 2022 to 2024 continued for roughly 2.5 years. If this pattern repeats, the current accumulation and correction phase in the Bitcoin market could extend until late 2026 or even mid-2027.

The liveliness indicator has already fallen below its 30-day and 90-day moving averages, which are now acting as resistance levels, suggesting a noticeable decline in spending activity among long-term holders. Adler added that if the 90-day moving average decisively crosses below the 365-day trendline in a death cross, it would serve as a critical signal confirming a structural shift into a full-fledged bearish phase.

Technical analysis also supports the bleak outlook. On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has broken below its mid-term moving average, losing upward momentum, and has repeatedly failed to reclaim the $90,000 to $100,000 range, solidifying the bearish trend. Notably, the breakdown of the green mid-term moving average—which had served as strong support throughout the previous bull market—is particularly significant. The next major structural support level is expected to be the long-term red moving average positioned in the mid-$50,000 range.

Experts warned that while Bitcoin may move sideways within a range if it manages to hold the $60,000 level, a breakdown below this threshold would significantly increase the risk of further declines toward long-term support zones with heavy trading volume. For a meaningful trend reversal, reclaiming at least the $80,000 to $90,000 range is considered an urgent priority.

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