Bitwise Makes Bold Play on 2028 Presidential and Midterm Election Prediction Market ETF, Approaches SEC

▲ Bitwise files for a prediction market ETF tracking the 2028 presidential and midterm elections / ChatGPT-generated image

According to investment outlet FXStreet on February 18 (local time), Bitwise Asset Management submitted documents to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on February 17 to launch a prediction market-based exchange-traded fund (ETF). The new brand, “PredictionShares,” is structured to track contracts related to the 2028 U.S. presidential election and the next House and Senate midterm elections.

The news was first reported at 21:55 (GMT) by Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart and was later confirmed with additional details by cryptocurrency and finance journalist Eleanor Terrett at 23:02 (GMT). PredictionShares is designed not as a one-off product but as a dedicated platform for prediction market exposure, reflecting a strategy to expand into a structural business line.

Bitwise’s filing follows a similar ETF application submitted days earlier by Roundhill Investments. After the strong performance of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the move aligns with a broader trend of expanding the ETF market into political and event-driven thematic products.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, stated that prediction markets are rapidly growing in both size and influence, adding that providing clients access to this asset class represents an opportunity that cannot be overlooked. His remarks suggest that prediction markets are evolving from fringe speculative tools into a new asset class gaining institutional attention.

If approved, the ETF structure would allow retail investors and financial advisors to invest in political event contracts through traditional brokerage accounts such as Schwab and Fidelity, without the need to sign up for separate prediction market platforms. However, the SEC and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have maintained a cautious stance, classifying political event contracts as “gaming” products or instruments susceptible to manipulation.

Trading volumes for political prediction contracts on platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt have increased, demonstrating clear demand. Notably, Kalshi secured a federal court ruling in 2023 allowing it to list election contracts despite opposition from the CFTC, setting a precedent. Nevertheless, concerns remain that regulatory uncertainty has not been fully resolved.

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