Ethereum’s Drop Below $2,000 a Fake-Out? Rally to $2,500 Ahead

▲ Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum (ETH) is struggling after being pushed below the psychological support level of $2,000. However, on-chain indicators and technical chart patterns are instead signaling the beginning of a major rally toward $2,500.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet Cointelegraph on February 17 (local time), Ethereum’s price has fallen about 20% in February, breaking below the $2,000 mark. Despite this decline, long-term investors are paradoxically strengthening their accumulation trend. Accumulation addresses added more than 2.5 million ETH in February alone, bringing total holdings from 22 million ETH in early 2026 to approximately 26.7 million ETH currently.

Network fundamentals are also improving. Currently, 37,228,911 ETH—about 30% of Ethereum’s total circulating supply—is locked in staking, reducing the liquid supply in the market. At the same time, weekly transaction counts have reached an all-time high of 17.3 million, while the median transaction fee has dropped to $0.008, significantly improving network accessibility for users. Leon Waidmann, Head of Research at Lisk, noted that the current network structure is processing higher usage at much lower costs compared to the peak of the 2021 bull market.

From a technical analysis perspective, Ethereum is forming an Adam and Eve bottom pattern on the four-hour chart. This pattern, consisting of a sharp V-shaped bottom (Adam) followed by a rounded bottom (Eve), is a classic bullish reversal signal. If Ethereum decisively breaks above the neckline resistance at $2,150, the pattern’s target projects a potential rise to the $2,473–$2,634 range. In the short term, $1,909 is expected to serve as a key liquidity zone and critical support level.

Futures market data also supports upward pressure. More than $2 billion in short liquidations are concentrated above the $2,200 level, meaning that if the price enters this range, a powerful short squeeze could act as a catalyst for further gains. In contrast, long liquidations near $1,800 total about $1 billion, relatively lower in comparison. However, according to Hyblock data, 73% of global accounts are currently maintaining long positions, and approximately $563 million in long positions around the $1,909 level could become a short-term liquidity target, warranting caution.

Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, stated that Ethereum’s value relative to silver is at an all-time low, suggesting that the current painful phase of the market may instead represent an optimal long-term accumulation opportunity. Ethereum’s open interest has decreased to $11.2 billion from its peak of $30 billion last August, but the estimated leverage ratio remains at 0.7, indicating that volatility expansion remains possible. Investors should monitor whether Ethereum breaks above $2,150 to gauge the timing of a broader market rebound.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and the publisher is not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.