Bitcoin Weakens Alongside Dollar Due to ‘This’... “$40 Trillion to Sweep the Market in 2026”

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), U.S. Dollar (USD)

Despite a historic plunge in the U.S. dollar, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen alongside it, an unusual phenomenon driven by a massive $40 trillion debt refinancing wall and tightening liquidity set to hit financial markets throughout 2026.

Louis Raskin, host of the cryptocurrency-focused YouTube channel Coin Bureau, analyzed in detail why Bitcoin plunged below $70,000 even as the Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a four-month low of 97.1 in a video released on February 15 (local time). Raskin explained that the long-standing inverse correlation—where Bitcoin surged when the dollar weakened—has completely collapsed. Instead, Bitcoin is now behaving like a risk asset, showing a high 0.80 correlation with technology stocks and moving in sync with the Nasdaq rather than acting as digital gold.

The biggest factor weighing on the market is the enormous volume of debt maturing in 2026. Roughly $9 trillion to $10 trillion of U.S. government debt will come due this year, representing about one-third of total outstanding issuance and effectively sucking capital out of the market like a black hole. Corporate debt refinancing has also surged to $3 trillion, forcing companies that borrowed during the era of low interest rates to roll over their debt at much higher rates. The increasing interest burden is eroding corporate profitability and fundamentally blocking liquidity from flowing into asset markets.

Capital flight into gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, is also weighing on Bitcoin. Amid geopolitical tensions and fears of trade wars, gold prices have surged more than 65% in 2025 alone, surpassing $5,000 per ounce, while Bitcoin has fallen 6%, undermining its reputation as digital gold. Notably, the People’s Bank of China has been selling U.S. Treasuries for nine consecutive months and buying gold for fourteen straight months as part of a strategic asset shift, diverting liquidity that might otherwise have flowed into Bitcoin into the gold market instead.

The unwinding of Japan’s yen carry trade has dealt another blow to Bitcoin. As the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, funds that had borrowed cheap yen to invest in risk assets are being withdrawn. The forced liquidations triggered in the process have further pressured Bitcoin’s price. The global liquidity index peaked at the end of 2025 and has since stagnated, creating a liquidity illusion in which no substantial new capital is actually entering the market.

For Bitcoin to reestablish its inverse correlation with the dollar and begin a full-fledged rally, the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate would need to fall below 3% and global liquidity expansion would have to resume. Additionally, a technical breakout above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $94,253 must be confirmed. Raskin emphasized that the true turning point for the market is likely to come between the second and third quarters of 2026, when these indicators align simultaneously.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.