Just as Bitcoin Appeared Ready to Rise, Prominent Analyst Warns of Imminent Prolonged Bear Market

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), decline, bear market/ChatGPT-generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) has once again displayed warning signals on its monthly chart that previously appeared just before historic crashes, casting the shadow of a massive downturn over the cryptocurrency market.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet NewsBTC on February 15 (local time), the SuperTrend Indicator, known as a signal of powerful trend reversals in the Bitcoin market, has issued a sell signal on the monthly time frame. Analyst Ali Martinez noted on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin’s monthly candle is trading below the SuperTrend line, suggesting the market could be turning decisively bearish. The SuperTrend indicator is a tool that interprets an asset as bullish when trading above the trend line and bearish when below it, and Bitcoin has now entered the risk zone.

Martinez warned that Bitcoin’s current technical structure closely resembles periods in the past that preceded major bear markets. Historically, the SuperTrend indicator consistently issued sell signals ahead of the severe downturns between 2014 and 2015, in 2018, and again in 2022. The fact that this latest signal has emerged on the monthly chart, a broader macro perspective, is intensifying concerns that Bitcoin could move beyond a short-term correction and enter a prolonged phase of value decline.

If Bitcoin closes this month’s candle below the SuperTrend trend line, historical patterns suggest a significant decline of at least 60% could follow. Should the indicator’s warning align with on-chain activity and macroeconomic events, the cryptocurrency market may face sustained downward pressure for an extended period. However, unlike in the past, the launch of spot ETFs and the substantial influx of institutional investors have fundamentally altered the market structure, which could limit the extent of any decline.

Some market observers argue that this sell signal may ultimately prove to be only a short-term warning. As Bitcoin becomes integrated into mainstream finance as a core institutional asset, continuous inflows of new demand provide grounds for a more resilient defense compared to traditional bear markets. If Bitcoin quickly recovers above the SuperTrend line and overcomes the downward pressure, the current signal could be recorded as a period of temporary volatility expansion rather than the onset of a bear market.

It is expected that it will soon become clear whether Bitcoin confirms the onset of a bear market by closing its monthly candle below the trend line or whether institutional buying pressure neutralizes the indicator’s warning. As structural changes in the market collide head-on with technical risks, Bitcoin stands at a critical crossroads that could determine its price trajectory for years to come.

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