Benjamin Cowen: “Bitcoin Won’t Hit Bottom for Another 14 Months” … Warns of Midterm Election Curse

▲ Gold, Silver, Bitcoin (BTC) / ChatGPT-generated image

As Bitcoin (BTC) moves beyond its past explosive rally cycle and enters a tedious correction phase, a major reset process is expected to unfold throughout 2026, testing investors’ patience.

Veteran trader Benjamin Cowen stated in a video posted on his YouTube channel on February 13 (local time) that the cryptocurrency market has concluded the bullish cycle that lasted from 2023 to 2025 and has now entered what he describes as a post-cycle digestion phase. Cowen highlighted that while gold and silver have recently surged to record highs, Bitcoin has shown relatively weak performance. Analyzing historical data, he noted that Bitcoin’s price bottom has typically formed about 14 months after gold’s strong rally, cautioning against excessive short-term optimism in the current environment.

In particular, 2026 is a U.S. midterm election year, aligning with periods in crypto history when cyclical price corrections and energy consolidation have occurred. Looking back at 2014, 2018, and 2022, midterm election years repeatedly saw heightened market volatility and reset phases that tested investors. Cowen emphasized that, in line with historical patterns, the market needs time to rebuild its energy, and this is a period to focus on risk management rather than aggressive expansion.

With Bitcoin dominance holding above 60%, capital concentration in high-quality assets is creating an even harsher environment for altcoin investors. Amid shrinking liquidity, most altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), continue to underperform against Bitcoin, remaining stuck in dead-cat bounces or capitulation phases. Cowen predicted that as capital continues to flow toward perceived safety, difficulties in the altcoin market are likely to persist for the time being.

The macroeconomic environment is also not particularly favorable for Bitcoin, and its correlation with major stock indices such as the NASDAQ remains a significant variable. Despite expectations of interest rate cuts, concerns about a potential recession are weighing on the market, causing Bitcoin to exhibit stronger characteristics as a risk asset rather than moving independently as digital gold. Cowen advised closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators, noting that downward pressure in equity markets is directly affecting Bitcoin’s price.

In conclusion, the first quarter of 2026 calls for a conservative approach prioritizing capital preservation over aggressive investment expansion. Cowen recommended maintaining a data-driven and disciplined outlook, suggesting that investors take a long-term view until signs of a structural market rebound are expected to emerge after the summer. Rather than attempting to catch the exact bottom, patience—waiting for the market’s energy to sufficiently consolidate—is likely to be the key factor determining returns.

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