XRP Rebounds on U.S. Inflation Cooling, Will It Break Through $1.5 Resistance and Soar?

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As signs of easing U.S. inflation combine with continued capital inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), XRP (Ripple) has snapped a three-day losing streak and is staging a sharp rebound, setting its sights on breaking above $1.50.

According to investment media outlet FXEmpire on February 14 (local time), the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January released the previous day came in below expectations, pushing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June up to 68.7%. January CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, and expectations of lower borrowing costs stimulated market liquidity, serving as a strong catalyst that drove XRP’s intraday price up to $1.4270.

Strong institutional demand in the spot ETF market further fueled the rally. On the 13th alone, U.S. XRP spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $4.5 million, offsetting the previous day’s outflows. On a weekly basis, total inflows reached $7.65 million, firmly tilting the supply-demand balance in XRP’s favor.

However, short-term technical indicators still point to weakness due to a cumulative 14% decline in February. Although XRP has reclaimed the $1.40 level, it remains below its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, suggesting that if the downtrend resumes, $1.00 could serve as a key support level. To confirm a trend reversal, XRP must break decisively above the $1.50 resistance and establish itself above the 50-day EMA at $1.7502.

There are also macroeconomic variables that could threaten the medium- to long-term bullish outlook. Risks include the unwinding of the yen carry trade following a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, delays in the passage of U.S. market structure legislation, reduced bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a shift to net outflows in spot ETFs. Should these factors materialize, the price could retreat to the $1.00 level again.

Nevertheless, experts maintain a positive medium-term target of $2.50 over the next four to eight weeks, citing sustained spot ETF demand and improving fundamentals such as legislative progress. If legislation is successfully finalized and the Federal Reserve maintains a dovish stance, XRP could reach $3.00 within 12 weeks and ultimately surpass its all-time high of $3.66, with sufficient potential to climb as high as $5.

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