Bitcoin Struggles in Trading Range… “Nothing but False Hope Until Next Year”

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has retreated to the $60,000 level—roughly half of its all-time high—entering what analysts describe as a tedious sideways phase aimed at preventing further declines, heightening investor anxiety.

According to Cointelegraph on February 13 (local time), cryptocurrency analysts predict that Bitcoin will remain in a prolonged consolidation phase, moving within a narrow range without clear directional momentum for the time being. They noted that Bitcoin is currently down about 52% from its peak of $126,000 recorded last October and concluded that several months of corrective consolidation will be needed to rebuild market momentum.

Research firm Kaiko Research assessed that the current pullback is relatively shallow compared to previous cycles. Kaiko analysts explained that while Bitcoin appears to be forming a strong base around $60,000, further time-based consolidation is likely to continue until the second half of 2026 before a full-scale rebound can occur. In particular, Fibonacci retracement levels near $71,800 and $74,500 are expected to act as strong resistance, repeatedly capping upward attempts.

Asset manager K33 Research pointed out that current market indicators show signs similar to a capitulation phase. Its analysts said that considering exchange inflows and funding rates, the $60,000 level has a high probability of marking a bottom. However, aggressive buying pressure is unlikely to emerge until Bitcoin breaks above higher time-frame resistance at $84,000. The market is closely watching whether short-term support between $63,000 and $65,650 can hold.

Retail investors are concerned that slowing institutional inflows through spot Bitcoin ETFs have significantly reduced market vitality. Axel Adler, an analyst who tracks structural market changes, warned that the structural shift indicator has entered negative territory, suggesting the market has fully settled into a bearish structure rather than a neutral phase. Adler noted that even if prices rebound, selling pressure from investors seeking to recover losses could emerge, urging cautious risk management.

The Bitcoin market is now entering a period that requires patience to endure time-based consolidation rather than simply confirming a price bottom. If the $60,000 support level breaks, cautious voices suggest that declines could extend to $57,800 and even $52,000. For the time being, investors are focusing on maintaining defensive positions and utilizing range-bound volatility rather than expecting major price breakouts, while waiting for signs of structural market improvement.

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