Bitcoin and Ethereum Enter Oversold Territory Amid Macro Uncertainty… Is This the Start of a Rebound?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH)

Bitcoin and Ethereum have technically entered extreme oversold territory, but the macro environment still fails to provide clear directional guidance.

According to investment media outlet FXStreet on February 12 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have been under strong technical pressure after consecutively breaking below key support levels as of February 11. Although a short-term rebound followed the sharp decline, analysts say the broader structure continues to reflect a downward trend.

Bitcoin fell below the $74,000–$80,000 resistance zone and subsequently broke the $70,000 support level. As it approached the $60,000 support area, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below 20, signaling an extreme oversold condition, before rebounding to trade near $67,000. However, there are expectations of a potential retest of $60,000, after which BTC could attempt to recover $74,000. A stop-loss level has been suggested at $57,000. Chart-wise, a bearish flag breakdown has been confirmed, and prices remain well below the 200-day simple moving average of approximately $101,500, indicating the continuation of a long-term downtrend. The RSI stands at 30.7, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains deep in negative territory, signaling strong downward momentum.

Ethereum is also maintaining a bearish trajectory. After sliding below $2,400, it is currently trading around $1,975, testing the key support zone between $2,000 and $2,100. A breakdown from its descending channel has confirmed the possibility of further trend continuation, and it remains significantly below the 200-day simple moving average of approximately $3,580. The RSI has entered oversold territory at 29, and MACD momentum indicates further weakening rather than stabilization. Analysts warn that a break below $1,800 could accelerate downside risks.

The macro environment remains mixed. As of December 2025, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year, while core CPI increased 2.6%. Although inflation has declined significantly from its peak, it has not shown a definitive convergence toward the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target. In January 2026, U.S. employment increased by 130,000, up from 50,000 the previous month, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%.

At its late-January meeting, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, reaffirming its data-dependent stance. Markets have scaled back expectations for aggressive rate cuts in 2026, pricing in only limited easing within the year if inflation shows renewed signs of moderation. Liquidity conditions are no longer deteriorating in a tightening phase, but neither are they shifting into aggressive easing. Technically, both BTC and ETH are in oversold territory, yet with structural downtrends still intact, analysts suggest that any rally is likely to face selling pressure until key resistance levels are reclaimed and the Federal Reserve signals a clearer dovish pivot.

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