Despite ETF Expansion, Why Are Bitcoin and Ethereum Struggling to Gain Momentum?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ETF © CoinReaders

Analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency market has entered a “trust reset” phase driven not by positive narratives but by liquidity conditions and realized losses.

According to investment outlet FXStreet on February 12 (local time), the market has recently reacted more sensitively to actual fund flows and liquidity environments despite news of new exchange-traded fund (ETF) launches and product expansions. While applications continue for new ETFs, including leveraged Bitcoin and Ether strategy products and altcoin-linked funds, more than $3.5 billion has flowed out of U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and over $1.5 billion from spot Ethereum ETFs in recent months. It was also noted that many spot ETF investors remain on average in unrealized loss positions, adding further pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $67,000, with on-chain data showing that approximately 53% of the supply is in profit. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) stands at 0.97, below 1, indicating that coins are moving on average at a loss. Over the past 24 hours, realized losses have significantly exceeded realized gains, signaling a capitulation-driven sell-off rather than an expansion phase. Although there have been some daily net inflows, they have been insufficient to offset spot selling and deleveraging.

Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $1,940, with about 37% of its supply in profit—lower than Bitcoin. Its SOPR also remains below 1, and the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric places it in the “capitulation” zone. This aligns with a structure in which selling pressure emerges during rebounds, pointing to an ongoing distribution phase. Questions surrounding existing narratives about network utility and valuation are also weighing on market sentiment.

Altcoins overall are exhibiting higher volatility and beta. Major tokens such as Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Chainlink (LINK) show relatively low percentages of supply in profit, while XRP (Ripple) is also facing technical pressure. With SOPR readings for many large-cap tokens below 1, analysts suggest that relative strength in altcoins is unlikely without Bitcoin stabilization and improved liquidity conditions.

From a price structure perspective, Bitcoin is forming a range between $66,000 and $68,000, with the $70,000 to $72,000 zone identified as key resistance. On the downside, the mid-$60,000 range serves as primary support, and a break below this level could open the possibility of a decline toward the low $60,000s. For Ethereum, the $2,000 to $2,100 range acts as upper resistance, while the $1,850 to $1,900 zone is cited as critical support. The market is currently characterized by repeated exaggerated volatility driven by concentrated liquidity windows and actual capital flows.

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