Bitcoin Whales Treat Bear Market as Buying Opportunity, ‘Repeating Past Downturn Accumulation Pattern’

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) whale

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen approximately 26% over the past month, prompting assessments that it has entered a bear market. However, on-chain data has detected steady accumulation by large investors. Despite the price decline, the number of large wallet addresses associated with high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors has approached an all-time high, drawing market attention. This trend is being analyzed as a typical accumulation phase often seen during past downturns.

According to Benzinga, data analysis from Santiment shows that the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC is nearing 20,000. At current prices, each of these addresses holds assets worth more than approximately $6.78 million and is largely linked to wealthy individuals, funds, and long-term institutional holders. As retail investors sell off their holdings and exit the market, so-called whales appear to be absorbing the available supply.

However, despite the increase in the number of large investor wallets, their overall share of the total supply has not risen dramatically. This suggests that rather than a small number of dominant players monopolizing the market, holdings are being broadly distributed among many whale-level investors. Historically, periods of increasing whale numbers have coincided with accumulation phases and have often been followed by strong market recoveries.

According to CryptoQuant data, if the current market cycle follows the structure seen after the April 19, 2024 halving, it may take considerable time for a bottom to form. In past cycles, the 2012 cycle bottomed 777 days after the halving, the 2016 cycle took 889 days, and the 2020 cycle took 925 days. Applying this timeframe to the present suggests that a macro bottom is likely to form between June and December 2026.

Notably, historical data show that bottoms were concentrated between September and November. This indicates that market bottoms are not formed by a single short-term event but are gradually built over a period of two to two and a half years. Analysts suggest that the quiet accumulation activity observed on-chain requires both technical and temporal maturation before translating into a sustained price rebound.

While Bitcoin remains under price pressure, the behavior of large holders supports a long-term bullish outlook. Although inflation metrics and macroeconomic uncertainty are fueling short-term volatility, the increase in wallet addresses acts as a factor reinforcing downside resilience. Rather than anticipating a swift rebound, investors are closely monitoring the historical cycle timeline and waiting for the accumulation phase to fully mature.

*Disclaimer: This article is provided for investment reference purposes only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from reliance on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*