XRP Falls Below $1.40… Will Retail Investor Exodus Hinder a Rebound?

▲ XRP Decline / ChatGPT-Generated Image ©

XRP (Ripple) has fallen below $1.40, facing dual pressure from weakening retail investor demand and a contraction in the derivatives market.

According to investment media outlet FXStreet on February 27 (local time), XRP traded around $1.35, extending its decline for a second consecutive day. After rebounding from a weekly low of $1.31 earlier in the week to as high as $1.49, the upward momentum faltered. The report noted that short-term momentum has weakened as the token slipped back below the key $1.40 level.

Ripple announced that starting in 2026 it will transition its ecosystem builder support framework from a single structure to a “decentralized model.” Under the new structure, independent organizations, venture partners, regional hubs, and community-led initiatives will participate in diversifying developer funding. Additionally, through its XRPL-based fintech builder program, Ripple plans to support the development of institutional-grade products, including stablecoin payments, credit infrastructure, tokenization, and regulated financial services.

However, retail investor participation has clearly declined. XRP futures open interest stood at $2.3 billion on the 27th, down from $2.35 billion the previous day, marking its lowest level since January 2025. This is a sharp contraction compared to the all-time high of $10.94 billion recorded in July. A decline in open interest is generally interpreted as a sign that position liquidations are outpacing the opening of new positions.

Technical indicators also point to continued pressure. XRP is trading below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, which range between $1.62 and $2.06, with all three averages maintaining downward slopes. On the daily chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above the signal line, but the histogram is shrinking, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 40, below the neutral 50 level, suggesting ongoing downside pressure.

In the short term, resistance is seen at $1.54, aligned with the February 6 high, followed by the 50-day EMA at $1.62 as a key inflection point. A breakout above these levels could open the door to a rebound toward the 100-day EMA at $1.83 and the 200-day EMA at $2.06. Conversely, analysts note that a renewed test of the $1.31 support level cannot be ruled out.

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