Bitcoin Stuck in Endless Downtrend—When Will It Reclaim $100,000?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) crash / ChatGPT-generated image ©

As Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, continues its relentless decline, prediction market investors have assessed the possibility of Bitcoin dramatically recovering to $100,000 in the short term at less than 1%.

According to crypto-focused media outlet Finbold on February 23 (local time), the latest data from prediction market platform Kalshi shows that the probability of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 before March is below 1%. The odds stand at 4% before April and just 10% before May, indicating that the market expects extremely limited upward momentum through the second quarter of this year.

Expectations improve slightly in the second half of the year. The probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 before June is 14%, rising to 17% before July and 27% by October. Even in the most optimistic scenario—recovering $100,000 before January 2027—the probability is only 37%, suggesting that investors are placing more weight on a long-term recovery rather than an immediate rebound.

This pessimistic outlook reflects the severe correction Bitcoin has recently endured. After reaching an all-time high near $126,000 at the end of 2025, Bitcoin was hit hard by U.S. President Donald Trump’s 15% global tariff hike, plunging below the $65,000 level over the weekend. The cryptocurrency moved in tandem with declines in S&P 500 futures, while more than $400 million in forced liquidations of long positions poured into the thinly traded weekend market, exacerbating the drop.

Capital outflows from institutional investors are also cited as a key driver of the downturn. Over the past five weeks, approximately $3.8 billion has flowed out of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, bringing total outflows this year to $4.5 billion. Notably, major products such as BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC have experienced significant redemptions, underscoring the sharp cooling of institutional sentiment.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $66,099, down about 3% from 24 hours ago, struggling to maintain stability. Technically, it remains trapped in a range between the $60,000 support level and the $70,000 resistance level. If the $65,000 level gives way, the price could slide toward the psychological support at $60,000. A decisive breakout above $70,000 is required to trigger a strong rebound.

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