Upbit Selling Was Just a Catalyst—Why Can’t XRP Hold Its 20% Gain?

▲ A mysterious XRP (Ripple) sell-off on South Korean crypto exchange Upbit shocks the community / Gemini-generated image ©

The reason XRP (Ripple) has failed to sustain its 20% rally amid “diverging relative strength”—outperforming Ethereum but lagging behind Bitcoin—has come to light.

According to cryptocurrency-focused outlet CCN on February 21 (local time), the XRP/ETH ratio rose from 0.00062 ETH at the start of the year to 0.00073 ETH, marking a 17.4% improvement year-to-date. Analysts say this reflects not so much XRP’s absolute strength as its relative outperformance driven by Ethereum’s deeper slump. Ethereum’s market capitalization has fallen 35% this year to $233 billion, while XRP has declined 24% to $85 billion. Although the gap has narrowed, XRP is viewed more as the “less bad asset” in a bearish market.

Following the flash crash on February 6, XRP surged 38% from around $1.12 to $1.67. During the same period, Bitcoin (BTC) recovered 14% and ETH 12%. However, the rebound was short-lived. On February 15, net selling volume on Upbit reached 57 million XRP, pushing the price down about 10%. Since then, XRP/BTC has formed lower highs and lower lows, signaling a shift to relative weakness.

The issue is structural. Altcoins typically fall harder in downturns and rebound more sharply during recoveries due to higher volatility. Analysts point out that this 38% surge was closer to a “mechanical rebound” than a trend reversal. As risk aversion resurfaced, capital rotated into BTC, which dominates in liquidity and safe-haven preference, leading XRP to give back much of its gains.

Technically, clear barriers remain. XRP is trading below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.68 and the psychological resistance level of $2.00. It has fallen under the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $1.72 and continues to respect the descending resistance line of its downward channel. Trading below the 50-day EMA suggests a bearish trend, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains in negative territory, indicating that momentum has not fully reversed.

Key support levels lie at $1.12, followed by $1.00. A daily close below $1.12 would open the door for further retracement toward a previous trading range. Conversely, reclaiming $1.72, breaking the downtrend line, and firmly holding above $2.00 would be necessary to invalidate the pattern of lower highs. The reason improved relative strength has not translated into a sustained rally is that structural resistance and volatile capital flows continue to dominate price action.

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