Gold Surges on Middle East Tensions; Why Is Bitcoin Falling?

▲ Why Is Gold Surging on Middle East Risks While Bitcoin Slips? / ChatGPT-generated image

As concerns over military conflict in the Middle East intensify, capital is flowing into gold while Bitcoin (BTC) faces downward pressure, highlighting a stark divergence between safe-haven and risk assets.

According to investment media outlet FXEmpire on February 19 (local time), reports that the United States is nearing direct military confrontation with Iran have rapidly shifted global capital flows toward safe-haven assets. Gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) rose on increased safe-haven demand, while international crude oil (WTI) prices climbed above $65 per barrel amid fears of supply disruptions. In contrast, Bitcoin weakened as investors moved away from risk assets.

Reports indicate that aircraft carrier strike groups, fighter jets, and air defense systems have been heavily deployed in the Middle East, with a significant increase in cargo flights carrying weapons and ammunition. Observers warn that if the conflict materializes, it could last for weeks, raising concerns about heightened volatility across commodities, equities, and cryptocurrencies. The surge in energy prices is already rippling through global financial markets.

Commodity markets reacted immediately. Gold has maintained solid momentum above $5,000, while silver and platinum (XPL) have also gained upward traction. On the weekly chart, gold formed a strong hammer candlestick at the upper boundary of a rising wedge pattern, suggesting the potential entry into another upward phase. This indicates that geopolitical risk premiums are being actively priced in.

In contrast, Bitcoin has moved in the opposite direction of safe-haven assets. After breaking below the key support level of $75,000, it fell into the $50,000–$55,000 range. Analysts note that following its $120,000 peak, the formation of a rounding top and a bear flag pattern suggests the asset has entered a structural correction phase. The $50,000–$55,000 zone is viewed as a key support area within a broadening ascending pattern, where a rebound attempt could emerge. However, a breakout above $100,000 would be required to signal the end of the correction.

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio also clearly reflects the risk-off sentiment. After breaking above the 29 level in October 2025, the ratio reversed into a downtrend and has since declined to 13, with some analysts suggesting a potential test of support at 9. Historically, during Bitcoin peak periods in November 2013, December 2017, April 2021, and January 2025, the ratio experienced sharp pullbacks. As such, the current trend is interpreted as another typical risk-off cycle. The trajectories of gold and Bitcoin are likely to diverge further depending on whether geopolitical tensions ease or escalate.

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