Bitcoin $60,000 Support on the Verge of Breakdown… Is the Next Bottom $54,900?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), decline, bear market / AI-generated image ©

Bitcoin has broken below a major support zone that had been regarded as a psychological last line of defense, shifting into a defensive stance. Amid institutional capital outflows and a contraction in the derivatives market, analysts are offering a grim outlook that, in a worst-case scenario, the bottom could open up to $54,900.

According to investment media outlet FXStreet on February 19 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the true market average price of $79,000, entering a full-scale defensive range. The current structural lower boundary is estimated at around $54,900 based on the realized price, while the demand-heavy zone formed between $60,000 and $69,000 in the first half of 2024 is struggling to absorb selling pressure.

On-chain indicators are uniformly warning of market vulnerability. The Accumulation Trend Score, which measures balance changes among wallet cohorts, has moved out of a strong selling phase below 0.1 and is hovering around an unstable equilibrium near 0.43. The 90-day realized profit and loss ratio has also fallen to between 1 and 2, a typical feature of stress conditions in the early stages of a bear market when losses begin to dominate. Unless this ratio decisively exceeds 2 and confirms liquidity inflows, the overall market structure is likely to remain negative.

Even more concerning is the chill in the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market, a key gauge of institutional demand. As prices retreated to $70,000, seven-day moving average fund flows turned to persistent net outflows. The spot cumulative volume delta on major exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase has also flipped negative, suggesting that the market is being dominated not by a mere liquidity gap but by active selling pressure.

Indicators in the derivatives market are likewise adopting a defensive posture. Perpetual futures funding rates have compressed into neutral and negative territory, indicating that investors are either taking short positions in anticipation of further declines or hedging risk. Meanwhile, one-month implied volatility has dropped sharply from a panic peak of 80% to around 47%, signaling expectations of sideways movement within a narrow range rather than an immediate crash.

The options market’s 25-delta skew has also declined from 20% to 11%, reflecting a reduction in extreme tail-risk hedging. However, put options continue to trade at a premium to calls, showing that demand for downside protection remains dominant. In the short term, the key lies in whether the $60,000 support level can hold. If it breaks, a further decline toward $54,900 becomes a realistic possibility, calling for a conservative approach.

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