Cardano at a Crossroads: Rebound or Breakdown? Crash Warning if $0.30 Fails to Break

▲ Cardano (ADA)

Cardano (ADA) is facing strong selling pressure near a major resistance level, standing at a critical crossroads for a potential price rebound.

According to crypto media outlet The Crypto Basic on February 18 (local time), Cardano is currently trading at $0.2841, down 0.91% from the previous day. The asset has been moving within a narrow range between $0.278 and $0.287, continuing a sluggish consolidation phase. Notably, spot trading volume reached only $57.74 million, while futures market volume surged to $593.37 million, heightening the risk of increased volatility driven primarily by derivatives trading.

From a technical analysis perspective, Cardano is encountering strong resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.30365. This zone has formed a thick supply barrier over the past few days as the price repeatedly failed to break through it. If Cardano manages to surpass and hold above this level, it could gain upward momentum toward the 50% Fibonacci level at $0.32916 and ultimately accelerate toward $0.35468. However, failure to overcome this resistance may result in a correction down to the support level at $0.27208.

Market indicators are also showing mixed signals, adding to investor uncertainty. The Awesome Oscillator stands at -0.02896, suggesting that bearish momentum still dominates the market. Although the red histogram bars have begun to turn green, indicating a slight easing of selling pressure, analysts emphasize that a sustained rebound would require the indicator to decisively move into positive territory. Currently, Cardano remains highly sensitive to the price movements of Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP on higher time frames, making it urgent for the asset to establish its own independent upward momentum.

The biggest risk factor for Cardano is the sharply weakened investor sentiment. According to data from Coinglass, Cardano’s open interest currently stands at $431.73 million, representing a dramatic decline of over 75% from the $1.95 billion recorded in October 2025. A continued decrease in open interest signals an exodus of market participants, potentially leading to insufficient liquidity for a meaningful price recovery. As previously noted by Santiment, collective fear can present accumulation opportunities, but the current imbalance in supply and demand remains a significant obstacle to short-term gains.

Ultimately, Cardano’s trajectory hinges on whether it can break above the $0.30 resistance level and on aggressive position shifts in the futures market. If the $0.27208 support level collapses, the price faces a substantial risk of falling further to around $0.22105, potentially deepening the 38.65% loss recorded over the past 90 days. Investors are advised to closely monitor improvements in key indicators and maintain a cautious approach. The global financial community is watching closely to see whether Cardano can overcome this resistance and stage a remarkable comeback.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from its use. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*