Don’t Be Fooled by the Relief Rally—Is Bitcoin’s Real Buying Opportunity in the $40,000 Range?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has successfully staged a short-term rebound and reclaimed the $70,000 level, but experts warn that further downside remains possible and advise long-term investors to watch for the optimal buying “sweet spot.”

According to cryptocurrency-focused outlet Finbold on February 15 (local time), analyst TradingShot noted that Bitcoin has declined for four consecutive weeks and is approaching the 200-week moving average (MA) near $56,000. This indicator has historically marked major turning points in past bear markets, and a decisive breakdown below it could trigger a deeper price correction.

The sweet spot considered most favorable for long-term investors to rebuild positions is identified between $45,000 and $51,000. The upper bound of this range aligns with the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from previous cycles, while the lower bound coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, making the zone technically significant. In a worst-case scenario, Bitcoin could fall toward the 350-week moving average—similar to the 2022 bear market bottom—before staging a rebound.

The recent rebound from around $60,000 to the $70,000 range was driven by renewed expectations of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve after January’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.4%, below the forecast of 2.5%. However, analysts interpret this move not as strong new buying pressure but rather as a temporary relief bounce that occurred amid a broader deleveraging process.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $70,370 and remains trapped below key indicators that support a medium- to long-term bearish trend. The current price sits well below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $84,961 and the 200-day SMA of $100,963, with the wide gap suggesting persistent selling pressure weighing on the market.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures market momentum, stands at 38.69, remaining in neutral territory but clearly tilting toward the oversold threshold of 30. This suggests that while the market has not yet reached an extreme capitulation phase amid cautious institutional positioning, downward momentum could persist for the time being.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only and we are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from its use. The information provided should be interpreted for informational purposes only.