XRP Attempts Rebound Amid Mixed Signals, $1.40 Key Level

▲ XRP (XRP) / ChatGPT-generated image ©

XRP (XRP, Ripple) is attempting a rebound after defending the $1.35 low, but conflicting signals from on-chain bottom indicators and rising exchange inflows have pushed it into a phase of directional uncertainty.

According to investment media outlet FXStreet on February 13 (local time), XRP fell to as low as $1.35 during intraday trading before attempting once again to reclaim $1.40. However, after failing to hold the $1.40 support level the previous day, price action reflected risk-off sentiment, with dampened investor confidence among both retail and institutional participants triggering a short-term correction. The outlet noted that a decisive break above $1.40 could ease bearish momentum, but warned that downside risk toward the $1.25 support level remains open.

The on-chain MVRV-Z score suggests the possibility of a rebound. The indicator, which measures market value relative to realized value, has remained in negative territory since early February and currently stands at around -0.13. Historically, previous entries into negative territory have been followed by mid- to long-term rebounds. In July 2024, when the MVRV-Z score reached -0.13, XRP surged from $0.45 to $2.91 by December of the same year. The outlet assessed that the possibility of bottom formation cannot be ruled out this time either.

However, the increase in exchange reserves poses a challenge to the recovery scenario. According to Glassnode data, XRP balances on exchanges rose slightly from 12.93 billion XRP on February 8 to approximately 12.99 billion XRP on February 13. While the increase is modest, in periods of market volatility, the movement of assets to exchanges often signals potential intent to sell, which could heighten selling pressure.

Technically, a cautious approach remains necessary. XRP is trading below its 50-day exponential moving average at $1.76, the 100-day at $1.97, and the 200-day at $2.16, with all three averages maintaining downward slopes. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below both the signal line and the zero line, though shrinking histogram bars suggest waning bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 32, nearing oversold territory. If the MACD crosses above the signal line, a recovery attempt toward $1.43, near this week’s opening price, may be possible. Conversely, failure to firmly reclaim $1.40 could leave the door open for a retest of $1.25.

Ultimately, XRP stands at the intersection of bottoming signals and mounting selling pressure. Whether it can reclaim $1.40 is expected to serve as a short-term inflection point, with exchange flow trends and technical indicator shifts likely acting as key catalysts for a potential trend reversal.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from its use. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.