Bitcoin Surges 5%—Genuine Rebound or Moving in Lockstep With Macro Rally?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©

Bitcoin (BTC) surged nearly 5% in a single day, climbing to just below $69,000. However, analysts say the nature of this rebound appears less driven by crypto-specific catalysts and more aligned with a broader macro risk-on rally.

According to CoinMarketCap on February 13 (local time), Bitcoin rose 4.71% over the past 24 hours to $68,850.87, while the total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased 4.21% during the same period. The report emphasized that Bitcoin’s short-term movements are closely linked with traditional assets, citing an 84% correlation with gold and a 63% correlation with the S&P 500.

The key driver has been a recovery in risk appetite. CoinMarketCap explained that as U.S. stock ETFs and gold showed strength, Bitcoin effectively traded like a “macro risk-on asset.” In the near term, traditional market trends and capital flows, rather than crypto-specific factors, are likely to determine short-term direction.

In the derivatives market, leveraged long positions have also increased. Open interest in derivatives jumped 18.01% to $540.87 billion, and funding rates turned positive. Technically, Bitcoin traded above its 7-day and 30-day moving averages, supporting short-term momentum, while the MACD histogram signaled positive momentum.

A key short-term focus is the Fibonacci levels. CoinMarketCap suggested that if Bitcoin holds the 50% retracement level at $67,237, it could test the 127.2% extension level at $70,550. Conversely, if $67,237 breaks down, there is downside risk toward the 61.8% support level at $66,731.

Ultimately, the combination of a macro rally and renewed leverage inflows has pushed prices higher, but there are warnings that volatility could increase again if funding rates become overheated. CoinMarketCap noted that the 7-day RSI has reached 70.2, approaching overbought territory, and added that trading volume and price reactions near the $70,550 level should be closely monitored.

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