Cardano Faces 20% Plunge Risk, "$0.25 Is the Last Lifeline"

▲ Cardano (ADA)

Cardano (ADA) is standing at a fragile crossroads between staging a breakout to shift into a bullish trend and facing potential capitulation marked by large-scale sell-offs, heightening investor anxiety.

According to crypto-focused media outlet The Crypto Basic on February 13 (local time), Cardano is currently engaged in a fierce battle at a critical technical level that will determine its price direction. Despite broader market-wide downward pressure, ADA has been striving to defend key support levels. However, the lack of sufficient buying volume is fueling fears of further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key technical indicator, is hovering near the oversold zone, consolidating momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to signal a valid downtrend, preventing the price from showing a clear rebound signal. Experts warn that if Cardano fails to break through the current range, a capitulation phase could unfold as investors cut losses and dump holdings en masse.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment shows that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has entered bottom territory, suggesting the asset may be undervalued. However, open interest in the futures market continues to decline, indicating insufficient liquidity. This suggests that institutional investors are maintaining a wait-and-see approach rather than aggressively accumulating, awaiting clearer confirmation of a market bottom.

Although developer activity within the Cardano ecosystem remains among the highest in the industry, it has not provided significant support for short-term price defense. With Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing unstable price movements, it may be difficult for Cardano to generate an independent rebound. If the $0.25 level breaks down, downside volatility could accelerate sharply, calling for heightened investor caution.

Market observers believe that whether this key support level holds will determine Cardano’s trajectory for the first quarter. Attention is focused on whether capitulation will flush out weak hands or whether a decisive breakout will signal the start of a rebound.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from it. The information provided should be interpreted for informational purposes only.