Is $65,000 a Fake Bottom? Experts Say Bitcoin’s Real Decline Is Just Beginning

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Weakness / AI-Generated Image

Bitcoin (BTC) is displaying several technical signals that have historically marked major turning points in past market cycles, but experts say there is still insufficient evidence to confirm that it has entered a true bottoming phase.

According to crypto-focused media outlet Decrypt on February 13, Bitcoin has recently undergone a sharp price correction, increasing overall market volatility. Various indicators tracked by on-chain data analytics firm CryptoQuant suggest that the market remains at a crossroads between a mid-cycle correction and a deeper bear market. While signals such as long-term holder capitulation and the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio resemble patterns seen at previous turning points, analysts note that firm bottoming signals to support a sustainable rebound have yet to emerge.

Traditional financial institutions are also taking a cautious stance on Bitcoin’s short-term outlook. In a recent report, Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, warned that Bitcoin could face further downside before staging a meaningful recovery. “In the short term, I believe Bitcoin could decline modestly to around $50,000 before a substantial rebound begins,” Kendrick said. Reflecting ongoing market uncertainty, he lowered his end-2026 target price for Bitcoin from $150,000 to $100,000, and cut his Ethereum (ETH) target from $7,500 to $4,000.

Kendrick assessed that current market conditions represent more than a simple price decline, describing them as part of the asset class’s maturation process. “Although the current environment is challenging for digital assets, it signals that the asset class is becoming more mature and resilient,” he emphasized. This suggests that Bitcoin is undergoing inevitable growing pains as it transitions from a speculative phase into integration with the traditional financial system.

In the market, Bitcoin is testing support around the $65,000 level, but pressure persists amid declining open interest and continued outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Experts believe volatility will likely continue until long-term holder selling subsides and clear signs of accumulation emerge. In particular, many argue that a true market bottom can only be discussed once overheating is fully resolved, including a drop in the proportion of Bitcoin supply held in profit below a certain threshold.

Ultimately, Bitcoin is navigating a complex phase where signals of a potential price turning point coexist with warnings that the bottom may still be distant. Investors are likely to monitor whether the $50,000 support level highlighted by Kendrick holds and watch for improvements in on-chain indicators as they formulate future strategies. As the crypto market becomes increasingly correlated with traditional financial metrics, macroeconomic variables such as changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policy are expected to play a crucial role in any price recovery.

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