Can Solana Hold $80? How Far Could It Fall If Support Breaks?
Solana is attempting a rebound around the $80 level, but recovery momentum is rapidly weakening amid selling pressure in the derivatives market and prevailing bearish sentiment.
According to investment media outlet FXStreet on February 11 (local time), Solana (SOL) fell more than 4% the previous day and has since retraced to around $80, but clear signs of recovery have yet to emerge. Trading near $82 during the session, whether it can defend the $80 support level has become a key factor determining its short-term direction.
On-chain data presents mixed signals. According to Santiment, Bitcoin remaining below $70,000 has fueled risk-off sentiment across the broader market, putting downward pressure on altcoins. However, historical trends show that periods marked by surging fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) have often coincided with sharp rebounds. Data from DeFiLlama indicates that the supply of stablecoins on the Solana network increased by about 14% over the past seven days, reaching $15.34 billion. While this suggests capital has shifted from volatile assets into stablecoins, it also indicates that liquidity remains on-chain, preserving a foundation for potential market activity.
Meanwhile, bearish sentiment is more evident in the retail-driven derivatives market. According to Coinglass, SOL futures open interest fell 2.74% over the past 24 hours to $5.08 billion. During the same period, long liquidations totaled $6.09 million, significantly exceeding short liquidations of $2.01 million. The funding rate also recorded -0.0061%, indicating stronger demand for short positions. This signals a short-term structure dominated by sellers. However, U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded net inflows of $8.43 million on Tuesday, suggesting institutional demand remains intact.
Technical indicators also present headwinds. Solana is trading below both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, with both indicators maintaining downward slopes. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a narrowing negative histogram, suggesting a slowdown in bearish momentum, though it remains in negative territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 27, entering oversold territory and indicating the possibility of a short-term rebound.
According to Fibonacci extension analysis, $80 represents a key support level corresponding to the 50% retracement zone. If this level breaks, further downside toward $64 and $41—aligned with the 61.8% and 78.6% extension levels—could open up. Conversely, if a rebound materializes, the next short-term resistance levels are expected at $116 and $148, where the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are located.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from its use. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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