Will Ethereum Fall to $1,600? Prediction Market Odds at 29%
Ethereum (ETH) may plunge an additional 18% by the end of February to the $1,600 level, a scenario gaining traction in decentralized prediction markets.
According to crypto-focused outlet Finbold on February 11 (local time), participants in the decentralized prediction market Polymarket view a decline to around $1,600 by the end of February as the most likely scenario for Ethereum. This implies an additional drop of about 18% from its current price of $1,950 at the time of reporting. However, the probability of reaching that level stands at 29%, indicating not overwhelming conviction but rather the highest-selected outcome among multiple scenarios.
Since the start of 2026, Ethereum has fallen 34.88%, marking the weakest performance among major large-cap cryptocurrencies. Over the same period, Bitcoin (BTC) declined 23.47% and XRP (Ripple) fell 24.59%. In terms of year-to-date returns, Ethereum’s losses have been comparatively steeper.
Other price scenarios presented on Polymarket reflect mixed market sentiment. The probability of Ethereum reaching $1,400 is 14%, while the likelihood of a drop to $1,200 stands at 5%. Conversely, the chance of a rebound to $2,800 is also 5%, and $3,000 carries a 3% probability. Price levels ranging from $800 to $4,000 are each assigned at least a 1% probability, suggesting that the market is bracing for broad volatility. In contrast, levels above $4,200—particularly the $5,000 range—are assigned less than a 1% probability, indicating they are viewed as highly unlikely.
The wide distribution of price expectations comes amid a sharp downturn that began in late January. Some traders and analysts believe a typical cyclical downturn in digital assets is now underway and are weighing the possibility of further lows. On the other hand, others argue that the current correction may be temporary, citing expanding institutional investment, the availability of Ethereum spot ETFs and other investment vehicles, as well as a more favorable regulatory environment.
Ultimately, while the $1,600 downside scenario dominates forecasts for Ethereum’s end-of-February price, the possibility of a rebound above $2,800 has not been entirely ruled out, underscoring a period of extreme uncertainty. The market appears to be searching for direction amid a tug-of-war between fear and optimism.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only and we are not responsible for any investment losses arising from its use. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.
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