Bitcoin Plunges 50%; Novogratz Says “Era of Low Returns” Begins
Mike Novogratz has assessed that “the era of cryptocurrency speculation is coming to an end,” predicting that the next phase will be led by tokenized real-world assets.
According to cryptocurrency media outlet CCN on Feb. 11 (local time), Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz made the remarks at the CNBC Digital Finance Forum in New York, stating that growing participation from institutional investors is changing the market’s risk appetite. He forecast that the market’s focus will likely shift toward tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) and tokenized stocks, with returns expected to be far lower than in the past.
Novogratz’s comments coincide with a sharp downturn in Bitcoin (BTC). Since the start of 2026, BTC has fallen more than 21% year-to-date and is down nearly 50% from its all-time high recorded in October 2025. Last week, it dropped to the $60,062 level, sending shockwaves across the broader market. He clarified that this decline was not due to a “collapse of trust” event like the 2022 FTX downfall. “There is no clear smoking gun this time,” he explained.
Instead, he pointed to the aftermath of large-scale leveraged liquidations that occurred in October 2025 as the primary cause. During a 24-hour period, more than 1.6 million traders lost leveraged positions totaling $19.37 billion, driving out large numbers of retail investors and market makers. “The crypto market is driven by stories and narratives, and when core participants disappear all at once, the market cannot quickly recover,” he said.
He also emphasized a shift in return expectations. Novogratz noted that retail investors do not enter the crypto market seeking a stable annual return of around 11%, but rather aiming for gains of eightfold, tenfold, or even thirtyfold. However, as institutional capital expands, the market will inevitably transition from “high-return speculation” to low-yield structured products. He added that tokenized stocks will display a “completely different return profile” as well.
The tokenized real-world asset market has already grown to a visible scale. According to data platform RWA.xyz, the total value of on-chain real-world assets currently stands at approximately $24.27 billion, of which about $10 billion consists of tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds. Novogratz stressed that regulatory improvements, such as U.S. crypto market structure legislation including the CLARITY Act, are necessary to revive momentum across the industry, adding that “we need legislation that can restore the spirit of the market.”
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.
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