Robinhood’s Bet on Prediction Markets, Will a 'Supercycle' Really Arrive?
Robinhood’s Bet on Prediction Markets, Will a 'Supercycle' Really Arrive?
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev declared that prediction markets have entered a supercycle that could grow into a multi-trillion-dollar annual industry, underscoring the explosive potential of the sector. He revealed that prediction markets are the fastest-growing business segment within Robinhood and suggested that, alongside changes in the regulatory environment and infrastructure expansion, the platform is ready to leap into becoming a mainstream financial product.
According to crypto-focused outlet CCN on February 11 (local time), Tenev highlighted the rapid pace of adoption in prediction markets during a recent earnings conference call and projected that major upcoming global events will drive further demand. The number of prediction market contracts executed on the Robinhood platform surpassed 12 billion in 2025 alone, the first year of launch, and has already exceeded 4 billion in 2026, continuing a steep upward trajectory.
Behind this optimism is a shift in the regulatory stance of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). On February 4, the CFTC officially announced it would withdraw the proposed regulations on event contracts that were introduced in June 2024, a move interpreted as a positive signal for companies including Robinhood. As regulators pivot from a previously hardline approach and signal the introduction of new rules, signs are emerging that market uncertainty may ease.
Robinhood is pursuing a strategy that goes beyond simple brokerage by directly building market infrastructure. Through Rothera, a joint venture established with Susquehanna, the company plans to operate a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse. Tenev explained that once Rothera becomes fully operational, Robinhood will be able to manage pricing authority and regulatory compliance requirements in-house, significantly accelerating the expansion of its product offerings.
The growing enthusiasm for prediction markets is also evident beyond Robinhood. Competing platform Kalshi recorded more than $1 billion in trading volume on Super Bowl Sunday alone, while Polymarket is planning to launch “Attention Markets” in collaboration with Kaito AI, based on social media share and sentiment metrics. This demonstrates that prediction markets are expanding beyond sports events into a wide range of non-sports categories.
However, experts caution that the sustainability of the supercycle ultimately depends on regulation and market integrity. The timing and substance of new CFTC rulemaking, along with litigation risks related to gambling laws at the state level, remain variables. If a stable regulatory framework is established and data transparency is ensured, prediction markets are expected to move beyond a niche sector and become a mainstream trading tool for retail investors.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*
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