Is the Return to $70,000 a Trap? Is Bitcoin’s “Real Bottom” $50,000?
Is the Return to $70,000 a Trap? Is Bitcoin’s “Real Bottom” $50,000?
Bitcoin (BTC) staged a surprise rebound over the weekend, offering investors a brief sense of relief, but experts remain cautious, saying it is still too early to discuss a bottom. Warning of a possible replay of the 2022 bear market, some have even presented a gloomy outlook that the “true bottom” could be around $50,000, heightening market anxiety.
According to cryptocurrency media outlet Cointelegraph on February 8 (local time), Bitcoin rebounded nearly 20% from a 15-month low to recover the $71,000 level. Despite the upswing, market skepticism persists. TradingView data show Bitcoin experiencing high volatility ahead of the weekly close, and many analysts warn that the rebound could be limited to a short-term technical bounce.
Independent analysts Tone Vays and Filbfilb pointed out that current price action resembles the 2022 downturn, placing greater weight on the possibility of further declines. Filbfilb in particular noted that the situation is not optimistic based on the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $95,300. Trader BitBull also said that “Bitcoin’s final capitulation has not yet occurred,” projecting that a genuine bottom would form below $50,000, where most spot Bitcoin ETF buyers would enter loss territory.
Currently, the average purchase price of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs stands at around $82,000. This indicates that a significant portion of ETF investors are already sitting on losses at current levels and suggests that selling pressure could intensify if prices fall further.
Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics, also highlighted the support zone between $58,000 and $68,000—known as the “cloud”—formed by the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and exponential moving average. He recalled that in May 2022, Bitcoin appeared to rebound while testing this cloud but ultimately broke below it in June, warning that the current situation bears an eerily close resemblance to that period.
Franzen added the caveat that historical patterns do not always repeat exactly and that the future is inherently uncertain. However, with multiple indicators pointing in an uneasy direction, investors may be better served by watching the market from a conservative standpoint rather than hastily calling a bottom.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is taken for investment losses incurred based on this content. The information should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*
<저작권자 ⓒ 코인리더스 무단전재 및 재배포 금지>
|
  많이 본 기사
English 많이 본 기사
최신기사
|
