Benjamin Cowen Says Bitcoin’s Current Rebound Is a Simulation of a Major Crash
Benjamin Cowen Says Bitcoin’s Current Rebound Is a Simulation of a Major Crash
Bitcoin (BTC) prices rebounded at the $60,000 support level, offering a brief sigh of relief. However, technical indicators are raising a sense of déjà vu reminiscent of simulations of past major crashes, calling for heightened caution among investors.
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen analyzed the recent plunge of Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index to as low as 9 in a video uploaded to his YouTube channel on February 7 (local time). Cowen highlighted that this extreme fear reading closely mirrors the level of 8 recorded on February 6, 2018. Even more striking, Bitcoin’s bottom at that time was around $6,000—exactly one-tenth of the current $60,000 support—leading him to liken the market’s movement to a simulation following a consistent rule.
The current downturn is less abrupt than in the past but is unfolding over a longer period. In 2018, Bitcoin plunged about 70% from its peak within eight weeks, whereas in the current cycle it has undergone roughly a 50% correction over 17 weeks. Cowen cautioned that while this slower pace may reflect a more mature market, if the drawdown ultimately reaches 70%, Bitcoin could retreat to the $37,000–$38,000 range.
Cowen characterized the current rebound not as a full-fledged trend reversal but as a typical relief rally within a bear market. Historically, Bitcoin has often staged a temporary recovery around March before posting lower lows again in April or May. He expects a similar pattern this time, with strength into early March followed by the formation of new lows between April and May. He also warned that the 20-week moving average is acting as a strong resistance level, and optimism should be tempered until this barrier is decisively reclaimed.
Discrepancies in investor sentiment indicators are another noteworthy factor. In 2018, after the Fear and Greed Index bottomed in February, Bitcoin prices fell an additional 50%, yet the index itself remained at higher levels, creating a divergence. This suggests that investors should not assume a market bottom solely because sentiment indicators are extremely low. Considering that bear markets typically last about a year, Cowen forecast that a true bottom could emerge around October, or potentially as early as May.
In closing, Cowen remarked that “bear markets make fools of both bulls and bears,” warning of the volatility trap in which skeptics appear wrong during rallies and optimists appear wrong during sharp declines. Rather than reacting emotionally to short-term price movements, he emphasized that maintaining a conservative asset management strategy—focused on key indicators such as whether the 20-week moving average is reclaimed—is essential for survival.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only, and no responsibility is taken for any investment losses based on this content. The information should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*
<저작권자 ⓒ 코인리더스 무단전재 및 재배포 금지>
|
  많이 본 기사
English 많이 본 기사
최신기사
|
