Ethereum Falls Below Whale Cost Basis—Is the Bull Market Over?
Ethereum has slipped below the average purchase prices of major investors, amplifying warnings that it stands at a crossroads between a short-term rebound and a deeper breakdown.
According to cryptocurrency-focused media outlet Bitcoinist on February 7 (local time), Ethereum (ETH) plunged more than 30% in the first week of February alone, at one point falling to $1,850. During this move, an unusual pattern emerged in which prices simultaneously dropped below the realized prices of all investor cohorts, significantly heightening market tension.
On-chain analyst MorenoDV, via a CryptoQuant QuickTake, analyzed the “Realized Price by Balance Cohorts” indicator and concluded that Ethereum has fallen below the overall average purchase prices of investors ranging from small holders to whales. In particular, the realized price of large holders with more than 100,000 ETH stands at around $2,074, which has been identified as the most critical benchmark in the current market.
Historically, this whale realized price has served as strong resistance during bear markets and as a key support level during bull markets. In 2019, mid-2020, and late 2022, strong rebounds followed recoveries of this level, whereas failures to reclaim it—such as in 2018–2019—led to additional declines lasting several years. MorenoDV noted that if Ethereum regains this price zone, a sharp rebound rally could occur, but failure to recover within 30 to 45 days could usher in another phase of capitulation selling.
Another burden lies in overhead resistance. Analysis shows that the realized prices of small holders are clustered between $2,534 and $2,675, suggesting that even if a short-term rebound occurs, this zone could act as strong selling pressure. For the market to succeed in a full-fledged trend reversal, a stable recovery above the whale realized price of $2,074 is seen as a prerequisite.
Conversely, if this level fails to be reclaimed, a bearish scenario remains on the table. Should Ethereum fall below $1,800 and consolidate there, the next support zone is cited between $1,600 and $1,300, a range that overlaps with past periods of major bear markets.
In the short term, however, rebound attempts amid volatility are also emerging. As of the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $2,030, posting a rebound of more than 7% over the past 24 hours. The market is closely watching whether this move will remain a technical bounce or become a turning point marked by a recovery above whales’ average entry prices.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only, and no responsibility is taken for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*
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