Bitcoin at Risk of Falling Below $66,000? Warning of Direct Hit from Employment Data Shock
Bitcoin at Risk of Falling Below $66,000? Warning of Direct Hit from Employment Data Shock
As expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut weaken ahead of the release of January U.S. nonfarm payroll data, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to the $66,000 level, heightening investor anxiety.
According to crypto-focused outlet CoinGape on February 11 (local time), selling pressure in the digital asset market intensified as forecasts spread that the upcoming January Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would exceed market expectations. Wall Street economists project job growth of 70,000, higher than December’s increase of 50,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%. Concerns that continued labor market resilience could prolong the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary stance have been a key factor behind Bitcoin’s price decline.
The digital asset market is closely watching the possibility that an overheated labor market could sustain inflationary pressure. Although average hourly earnings growth is expected to slow to 3.6% year-over-year, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s inflation target. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool reflects roughly a 50% probability of a rate cut in June, dampening dovish market expectations. Amid this monetary policy uncertainty, Bitcoin has entered a short-term technical correction while testing support at $66,000.
The downturn has spread beyond Bitcoin to the broader altcoin market. Major assets such as Ethereum (ETH) and XRP also posted declines, significantly reducing the overall market capitalization. In particular, short-term speculative funds that had flowed in on expectations of deregulation under President Donald Trump’s administration moved to cash positions for risk management ahead of the jobs data release, amplifying the decline. Analysts warn that if Bitcoin fails to hold its current support level, it could fall further to the low $60,000 range, revisiting last week’s lows.
Wall Street analysts believe the employment data could also influence the future course of Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh. If Warsh adopts a cautious stance on rate cuts based on labor market resilience, dollar strength and digital asset weakness could persist for some time. Conversely, if the data significantly miss expectations, renewed rate cut hopes could trigger a rebound attempt in Bitcoin.
According to data from Kaiko, approximately $9 billion in liquidations occurred during the recent downturn, while stablecoins’ market share surpassed 10%. However, the decline in trading volume is interpreted not as panic selling by retail investors but as a wait-and-see approach amid capital outflows. Investors are maintaining cautious positions, closely monitoring not only the headline employment figures but also detailed labor force participation data and their potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s assessment.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses arising from it. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*
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