A Repeat of the 2022 60% Crash? Glassnode Warns of XRP Capitulation Risk
A Repeat of the 2022 60% Crash? Glassnode Warns of XRP Capitulation Risk
XRP is once again forming a dangerous on-chain pattern that previously appeared ahead of the historic crash in 2022, injecting significant tension into the market.
According to a report on February 10 (local time), blockchain analytics firm Glassnode noted that XRP’s current on-chain structure closely resembles early 2022, when the asset suffered a price collapse of more than 60%. The average purchase price of new investors who bought within the past one week to one month has fallen below that of long-term holders who accumulated their positions six to twelve months ago. While this may appear to signal short-term inflows of fresh buying, it is interpreted as a warning sign that long-term holders are exiting the market while absorbing losses.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a key on-chain indicator, has dropped from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96 currently. A reading below 1.0 indicates that market participants are, on average, selling assets at a loss. XRP’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric is also trending downward, and as the price slides toward the realized price level of $1.48, concerns over a breakdown of key support are intensifying.
Historical data shows that a similar on-chain pattern was present in February 2022, when XRP was trading around $0.78. After these indicators sharply deteriorated at the time, XRP plunged by roughly 60% to $0.30 within just a few months, inflicting heavy losses on investors. Currently, XRP is repeatedly attempting to reclaim the $2 level but is being blocked by a dense sell wall of 1.86 billion XRP, with realized losses of approximately $500 million to $1.2 billion occurring each week in that range.
Glassnode assessed that the newly observed data represents a classic market capitulation signal and could be a precursor to a bearish transition marked by prolonged sideways movement or additional declines rather than a V-shaped recovery. The firm also warned that if the $1.48 realized price support breaks, a psychological threshold could collapse and trigger large-scale panic selling. Although new buying demand is entering the market, it remains insufficient to fully absorb the selling pressure from long-term holders.
The broader cryptocurrency market is currently navigating a phase of heightened volatility across major assets, including Bitcoin (BTC). With long-term holder exits accelerating, whether the market repeats a past crash scenario or establishes a new support base will depend on the battle between supply and demand around the $1.48 level. For now, investors are advised to adopt a cautious stance and closely monitor changes in on-chain indicators and price trends.
*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not accept responsibility for investment losses incurred based on its contents. The information should not be construed as financial advice.*
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