“Only 10,200 BTC Are Truly Vulnerable,” CoinShares Analyzes the Myths and Realities of Quantum Fears
“Only 10,200 BTC Are Truly Vulnerable,” CoinShares Analyzes the Myths and Realities of Quantum Fears
Recent analysis suggests that market fears claiming quantum computers will dismantle Bitcoin’s security are exaggerated and largely unfounded, revealing that the amount of Bitcoin actually exposed to a real threat accounts for only a tiny fraction of the total supply.
According to a recent report by digital asset manager CoinShares, Bitcoin’s vulnerability to quantum computing has been significantly overstated. CoinShares analyst Matthew Kimmell argued that claims suggesting as many as 7 million BTC are at risk stem from misunderstandings that overlook Bitcoin’s actual technical structure. He explained that quantum computers do not pose a practical threat to the Bitcoin network in the near term and that such risks represent a long-term engineering challenge that could emerge only decades from now.
The report notes that Bitcoin’s cryptographic security relies on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which is theoretically vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm when implemented on a sufficiently powerful quantum computer. However, the modern address types that make up most of the network—such as Pay-to-Public-Key-Hash (P2PKH) and Pay-to-Script-Hash (P2SH)—conceal the public key behind a hash function, making it impossible for a quantum computer to extract the public key before a transaction occurs. Only early-era Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses used in the formative period, or cases where addresses are reused and the public key has already been revealed, can realistically become targets of quantum attacks.
CoinShares estimates that while roughly 1.7 million BTC are held in theoretically vulnerable P2PK addresses, the amount that could have a meaningful market impact is limited to about 10,200 BTC. Most of the exposed holdings are fragmented into very small amounts across tens of thousands of addresses, making the cost of individually extracting them via quantum computing far greater than the value of the stolen assets. As a result, attackers lack sufficient economic incentives to attempt large-scale hacks, making the likelihood of a system-wide market collapse extremely low.
Experts also agree that the pace of quantum computing development is far slower than market fears suggest. With current technology, it is expected to take at least 10 to several decades to achieve the tens of millions of logical qubits required to break Bitcoin’s security. CoinShares emphasized that this timeframe gives the Bitcoin network ample opportunity to upgrade to quantum-resistant address formats through soft forks. Rather than succumbing to vague fears and panic selling, investors are advised to prepare for an orderly migration aligned with technological progress.
Ultimately, Bitcoin is building a robust breakwater even in the face of the massive wave represented by quantum computing, and the figure of 10,200 BTC clearly demonstrates that the actual threat remains manageable. The digital asset industry has used this report to push back against unfounded pessimism and reaffirm confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term resilience. Through ongoing technical improvements and community consensus, Bitcoin is expected to further solidify its position as digital gold, capable of protecting asset value against even the most advanced forms of attack.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is assumed for any investment losses incurred based on its content. The information provided should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.
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