Bitcoin halves spark fear among retail investors as historical data warns of a move toward 38,000 dollars
Bitcoin halves spark fear among retail investors as historical data warns of a move toward 38,000 dollars
As Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to withstand selling pressure and faces threats around the $60,000 level—roughly half of its all-time high—a pessimistic outlook has emerged suggesting the price could plunge further to $38,000 based on past bear-market cycles.
According to cryptocurrency-focused outlet NewsBTC on February 6 (local time), Bitcoin has been undergoing a severe downward correction that began from its $126,000 peak recorded in October 2025, recently breaking below the key $65,000 support level. Crypto analyst Sherlock stated that an analysis of drawdown patterns from past Bitcoin cycles indicates the current correction has not yet reached its final stage and that a true bottom may only form around the $38,000 level.
Sherlock’s analysis is based on the trend that Bitcoin’s peak-to-trough declines have gradually decreased as the asset market has matured. Following an approximately 93% drop in the 2011 cycle, declines narrowed to about 86% in 2015, 84% in 2018, and roughly 77% during the 2022 bear market. Reflecting this trajectory, Sherlock estimated the current cycle’s drawdown at around 70%, which, when applied to the $126,000 peak, implies a final bottom near $38,000.
Some market participants counter that large-scale institutional inflows and greater market resilience could limit the decline to between 55% and 60%. In response, Sherlock warned that downside momentum can be just as powerful as upside forces, highlighting the risks of buying based on the belief that $69,000 or $50,000 represents a bottom. “Reflexive moves can amplify downward trends,” Sherlock said, emphasizing that investors should prepare for deeper corrections rather than rushing into premature dip-buying.
Bitcoin plunged intraday to as low as $60,255 and is currently attempting a fragile rebound around $64,850, marking its lowest level since October 2024. Should Bitcoin retreat to the $38,000 zone as Sherlock predicts, it would effectively return to price levels seen in the early stages of the 2023 October bull run. The market is now searching for direction amid fears of large-scale liquidations and deeper corrections, closely watching for signs that additional selling pressure has been exhausted.
The crypto market is undergoing a painful cleansing process aimed at unwinding excessive leverage and establishing a new price order. While the $38,000 forecast has come as a shock to investors, cautious sentiment is spreading as it becomes increasingly difficult to ignore the consistent patterns shown by historical data. Ultimately, if Bitcoin fails to hold key psychological support levels, market attention is likely to focus on the $38,000 mark that Sherlock has identified as the final line of defense.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is assumed for investment losses based on its content. The information should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*
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