Don't Be Fooled by the Rebound? Bitcoin's Real Signal Has Yet to Appear
Don't Be Fooled by the Rebound? Bitcoin's Real Signal Has Yet to Appear
As Bitcoin slipped below $65,000 and came into contact with the key benchmark of the volume-weighted average price (VWAP), discussions have resurfaced about signals of bottom formation seen in past cycles.
According to investment outlet FXStreet on February 6 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) is testing the anchored VWAP zone fixed at the extreme lows of 2022, around the $63,800–$63,900 range. This area overlaps with the pre-2022 peak, and while a short-term rebound has appeared, analysts say a definitive trend reversal has yet to be confirmed.
Historical cases show that when Bitcoin maintained its structure above this anchored VWAP and moved sideways, it often led to a stable recovery. However, a more reliable signal was a pattern in which price consolidated below the VWAP for a period and then reclaimed it. In other words, a “pullback and breakout” rather than a simple initial bounce was considered a clearer sign of a cycle transition.
The technical structure also supports a cautious stance. The current price action suggests the possibility of a bear flag pointing toward the $53,000 level, but more important than the precise target is how the market reacts and whether structure is maintained in that zone. In addition, U.S. equities entering a corrective phase and weakening risk appetite are cited as factors that could cap Bitcoin’s short-term upside.
On-chain indicators likewise suggest that bottom formation may still be in progress. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicates that a significant portion of holders remains in profit, whereas past major lows often formed after this metric briefly dipped into negative territory. Although the depth of corrections has eased with each cycle, history shows repeated instances of additional pressure emerging before a fully established bottom.
Overall, Bitcoin’s current reaction around the VWAP is more likely part of a bottoming process than the start of an immediate rally. If past patterns are any guide, direction may only become clear when the market consolidates and then sustainably reclaims the VWAP, rather than on the basis of a short-term bounce alone.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is taken for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*
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