Bitcoin Charts and On-Chain Metrics Flash Warnings as $63,100 Faces Final Support Test
Bitcoin Charts and On-Chain Metrics Flash Warnings as $63,100 Faces Final Support Test
As Bitcoin (BTC) has plunged 38% from its January peak, chart patterns and on-chain data are simultaneously pointing to $63,100 as the “last line of defense.”
According to investment-focused media outlet FXStreet on February 11 (local time), BTC has fallen about 38% since its mid-January high. After bottoming at $60,100, it rebounded to $72,100 in early February, but buying momentum did not last long. On February 10, the price broke downward, undermining the recovery base the market had been anticipating. In particular, a bearish flag pattern formed during the January correction was confirmed with a downside breakout, adding weight to the possibility of further declines.
Technical indicators also sent warning signals. From November 24 to February 8, BTC formed progressively lower highs, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) posted slightly higher highs. This hidden bearish divergence between price and indicator suggested that selling pressure was building beneath the surface, and as rebound momentum faded, sellers regained control.
On-chain data provides more detail on the selling activity. The “HODLer net position change,” which tracks wallets holding for more than 155 days, shrank 35% in a single day, from +8,142 BTC on February 9 to +5,292 BTC on February 10. The “long-term holder net position change,” which aggregates wallets holding for over one year, expanded from −157,757 BTC to −169,186 BTC. Negative values indicate net selling, and the roughly 7% increase in just one day shows that long-term holders are accelerating their selling.
Market attention is now focused on the $63,000 range. According to the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) indicator, about 1.3% of the total supply is concentrated near $63,100. This level represents an area where buyers’ average entry prices are clustered, potentially acting as a demand barrier when approached from above. The $67,350 support level has already been broken. If $63,000 collapses, analysts suggest the next support lies at $57,740, with a deeper correction potentially opening the way to $42,510.
Conversely, easing short-term pressure would require a recovery above $72,130, while a breakout above $79,290 would be needed to crack the medium-term bearish structure. Until then, any rebound is likely to remain a technical pullback within a broader downtrend.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from its use. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.
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