When liquidity loosens, the trend will reverse… Bernstein predicts a major Bitcoin turnaround
When liquidity loosens, the trend will reverse… Bernstein predicts a major Bitcoin turnaround
Despite a recent sharp pullback, market attention is focusing on the assessment that this downturn could be the “weakest bear market in history,” following analysis from a global asset manager suggesting that Bitcoin (BTC) could rebound to $150,000 by the end of the year.
According to a February 11 report, the analysis team at global asset manager Bernstein reaffirmed its existing outlook that Bitcoin can reach $150,000 by year-end. Although Bitcoin recently slid to around the $60,000 level, the team judged the move to be a voluntary adjustment driven by a “crisis of confidence,” rather than a system breakdown.
The team led by Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani characterized the current downturn as the weakest bear scenario in Bitcoin’s history. Unlike past cycles, there were no triggers such as major bankruptcies, structural shocks, or regulatory risks; instead, the market simply fell into an excessively depressed psychological state.
The analysts assessed that Bitcoin’s fundamentals are stronger than ever. They cited a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment following President Donald Trump’s inauguration, ongoing institutional inflows via spot Bitcoin ETFs, and increased Bitcoin holdings by listed companies such as Strategy as key sources of structural support.
Bernstein also pushed back against fears that quantum computing could threaten Bitcoin’s security, calling them overblown. All critical financial infrastructure, including banking systems, is exposed to the same risk, and quantum-resistant standards are expected to be introduced as the technology matures. Strategy is likewise preparing Bitcoin security programs, but Michael Saylor has previously stated that any real threat is still roughly a decade away.
Concerns over potential selling by large corporate holders were also dismissed. Bernstein explained that major companies such as Strategy have designed their financial structures to withstand extreme price declines. Strategy’s management has previously stated that forced liquidation would not occur unless Bitcoin fell to $8,000 and remained there for five years.
Bernstein expects Bitcoin to regain upward momentum if the liquidity environment eases. However, because Bitcoin is still traded like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than “digital gold,” it may underperform gold in the current phase where liquidity is concentrated in specific assets. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $68,620, down about 2.6% over the past 24 hours.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is taken for any investment losses incurred based on its content. The information should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.
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