As Bitcoin (BTC) plunged by nearly half from its all-time high, fear in the market reached extreme levels. However, an analysis suggests that this move remains a perfectly normal development that does not deviate in the slightest from the historical four-year halving cycle pattern.
According to cryptocurrency-focused media outlet BeInCrypto on February 10 (local time), digital asset analytics firm Kaiko stated in a recent report that Bitcoin’s price correction does not undermine the four-year halving cycle but instead reinforces it. Bitcoin fell roughly 52%, dropping from a peak near $126,000 at the start of the year to between $60,000 and $70,000 in early February.
Kaiko assessed that this sharp decline aligns perfectly with bear markets that followed previous halvings. Historically, Bitcoin has formed a peak shortly after a halving and then experienced declines ranging from 50% to 80%, and the drop from $126,000 to $60,000 is described as part of a recurring historical pattern rather than a structural breakdown. The current cycle is following the typical timeline in which Bitcoin peaks about 12 to 18 months after a halving, such as the one implemented in April 2024, before entering a bearish phase.
In general, after reaching a price ceiling, Bitcoin undergoes a painful bear market lasting about a year, clearing excess market froth. This is then followed by an accumulation phase in which investors gradually rebuild positions, a well-established pathway observed over recent years. Kaiko noted that while current volatility is weighing on investor sentiment, it represents a necessary process of compressing energy for the next long-term upswing.
The four-year Bitcoin cycle is rooted in a unique market structure shaped by declining supply and investor psychology. The recent price adjustment is acting as an inflection point that tests the market’s maturity, with the ability to defend the $60,000 support level emerging as a key variable that will determine the speed of any rebound. Investors are formulating strategies by focusing on macro trend shifts following the halving, rather than overreacting to short-term price fluctuations.
Leaving the $126,000 peak behind, Bitcoin is now passing through the midpoint of the four-year cycle under a period of severe testing. It is worth recalling that in each of the past three halvings, new accumulation opportunities only emerged after similar sharp sell-offs. If this decline represents not the end of the cycle but another fragment of repeating history, the coming months of sideways movement will become a decisive period for strengthening the market’s fundamentals.
*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The publisher bears no responsibility for investment losses based on this content.*
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