Bitcoin Faces a $68,000 Sell Wall as Warnings Emerge of Further Plunges in the First Quarter
Bitcoin Faces a $68,000 Sell Wall as Warnings Emerge of Further Plunges in the First Quarter
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing intense selling pressure around the psychological resistance level of $68,000, prompting a series of stern warnings from experts that an additional downturn could be prolonged through the first quarter.
According to cryptocurrency-focused outlet CryptoPotato on February 10 (local time), Bitcoin has recently closed below its 100-week moving average for three consecutive weeks, enduring sustained long-term downward pressure. CoinView CEO Nic Puckrin noted that Bitcoin has remained below this trend line for 13 days, warning that historical precedents suggest the downturn could last longer than expected. He explained that while a swift rebound is not entirely impossible, the longer the price stays below support levels, the lower the probability of recovery.
MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe also pointed out a sharp increase in the proportion of Bitcoin holders currently sitting on losses based on on-chain indicators. He analyzed this as a classic signal typically observed near the peaks of historic bear markets such as those in 2015, 2018, and 2022. While acknowledging that the short term may be painful, he added that this phase could represent a powerful accumulation opportunity for long-term investors.
Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, assessed the current market structure as making it difficult for Bitcoin to gain upward momentum in the near term. He emphasized that unlike last year, when $10 billion in cash inflows generated $26 billion in market capitalization, this year saw inflows of $308 billion while market capitalization instead declined by $98 billion. This indicates that selling pressure is so strong that no amount of capital inflow is translating into price gains, reflecting a lack of a multiplier effect.
Data analysis from Glassnode shows that unrealized losses around the $70,000 level account for roughly 16% of total market capitalization. This suggests that the overall pain felt across the market resembles the structure seen during the sharp crash of May 2022. Analyst Sykodelic noted that when Bitcoin fell to $60,000, trading volume reached the fourth-highest level since the 2022 bottom, predicting that the $60,000 level will serve as the decisive watershed in this downtrend.
Bitcoin is currently moving sideways between $68,000 and $69,000 as it searches for direction, but buying strength needed to break through resistance remains insufficient. On higher time frames, Bitcoin is still in bear market territory, down about 44% from its peak, with downward price movement remaining the most likely scenario in the near term. Market participants are maintaining a defensive stance, believing that if the $64,000 support level collapses, Bitcoin will undergo a painful process of retesting the $60,000 bottom.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is taken for losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*
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