Why Is XRP Struggling in the $1 Range After Predictions of an $8 Surge?
Why Is XRP Struggling in the $1 Range After Predictions of an $8 Surge?
While major financial institutions are projecting an optimistic outlook for XRP (Ripple), predicting a rise to $8 by the end of 2026, fundamental data and statements from insiders tell a very different story, urging caution among investors. As a sharp collapse in network usage, a steady monthly flood of supply, and the management’s ambiguous stance converge, pessimism is spreading that XRP has lost its upward momentum.
According to a cryptocurrency-focused media outlet on February 7 (local time), XRP is currently trading between $1.37 and $1.42, down nearly 50% from its July 2025 peak of $3.65. Large institutions such as Standard Chartered have attempted to bolster optimism by setting an $8 year-end target, but actual network data paint a bleak picture. Global daily transaction fees plunged 89%, from 5,900 XRP in early 2025 to 650 XRP by mid-December, marking the lowest level since December 2020. This drop indicates weak real-world adoption by institutions and suggests that the genuine demand needed to support higher prices has vanished.
Skepticism is also evident within Ripple itself. Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz dismissed unrealistic price forecasts within the community, stating that “if rational people believed there was even a 10% chance that XRP would reach $100 within a few years, they wouldn’t be selling below $10 now.” Chief Executive Officer Brad Garlinghouse mentioned “new all-time highs” at the Davos Forum, but his comments referred to the broader cryptocurrency market, and he avoided providing any specific price target for XRP, further fueling doubts.
Chronic oversupply remains a massive barrier to any sustained rally. Ripple releases up to one billion XRP from escrow each month, and this mechanical selling pressure has repeatedly dampened price increases. From a technical perspective, XRP is trapped in a descending channel and continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA), displaying classic bearish patterns. Some analysts are leaving open the possibility of a further decline to as low as $1.27.
Partnerships with banks are also being criticized as largely superficial. Although Ripple promotes partnerships with more than 300 financial institutions, only a handful have actually adopted the ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) function that uses XRP tokens. In the second quarter of 2025, ODL transaction volume reached just $1.3 billion, a figure far too small to justify the current market capitalization. Moreover, concerns are growing that the launch of Ripple’s own stablecoin, RLUSD, could further erode demand for XRP.
Ultimately, for XRP to shed its reputation as a “coin that never goes up,” it must deliver tangible improvements in network usage and resolve supply-demand imbalances, rather than relying on headline-grabbing partnership announcements. Current data suggest that XRP is dependent mainly on speculative demand, and without a fundamental shift in its underlying metrics, a return to its former glory appears unlikely.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is assumed for any investment losses based on its content. The information provided should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*
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